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Why is Netanyahu clashing with the US over a Palestinian state? – analysis

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE AND ALEX KOLOMOISKY/POOL)

Why all the Palestinian state talk? Because of elections, both in Israel and the US.

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There is something surreal about all the renewed talk of a Palestinian state.

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Less than four months after Hamas launched a savage attack on Israel – killing 1,200 people, taking 240 people hostage, destroying communities, raping women, mutilating bodies, and sparking a significant war – news sites are reporting on the tension between Washington and Jerusalem over a two-state solution.

Suddenly, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is talking about a pathway toward two states as a condition for a broad, new Middle East structure that will have Saudi Arabia formalizing ties with Israel. Suddenly, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after discussing the issue with US President Joe Biden, is saying a Palestinian state will never happen under his watch. Suddenly, five senators are announcing that they are in favor of conditioning emergency supplemental aid to Israel on Netanyahu, reaffirming support for a Palestinian state.

A war between Israel and the ‘Palestinian State of Gaza’

A few weeks ago, former National Security Council head Giora Eiland said that one of Israel’s public diplomacy errors since October 7 was casting this war as one between Israel and Hamas.

Wrong, he said; this is a war between the State of Israel and the Palestinian State of Gaza. Since Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, that strip of land has been under the Palestinians’ exclusive control, first by the Palestinian Authority and then, as a result of a bloody coup in 2007, by Hamas.

For nearly two decades, Israel has not controlled Gaza, has not ruled there, has had no say over the government that the Palestinians themselves voted in, and has been unable to prevent the build-up of a small army with significant capabilities.
The Palestinians had a mini-state in Gaza, and in Ariel Sharon’s original conception, when he prompted Israel’s withdrawal from the area, this was to be a test case as to whether that state could eventually extend to the West Bank as well.

On October 7, Israel saw how well that worked out, and what this mini-Palestinian state had wrought. Israelis saw what a Palestinian entity, fed on fanatical ideology, was able to accomplish. Israelis saw what this Palestinian entity was, what it sanctified, what it worked for, what it dreamed of, and what it was capable of carrying out.

And what they saw is not something that will encourage them to say in the future, “Hey, this worked great; let’s duplicate it elsewhere.”

Or, as no less a one-time two-state advocate than President Isaac Herzog said Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, “If you ask an average Israeli now about his or her mental state, nobody in his right mind is willing now to think about what will be the solution of the peace agreements.”

Israelis, he said, have “lost trust in the peace processes because they see that terror is glorified by our neighbors.”

In other words, for the vast majority of Israelis right now, talking about a two-state solution – while the hostages are still being held, while Israel is fighting on various fronts, and while Palestinian polls are giving Hamas a staggering amount of support in the West Bank – is just a pipe dream.

Elections in Israel, US dictating Palestinian state talk

SO WHY is all the Palestinian state talk re-percolating? Because of elections, both in Israel and the US.

In the US, Biden knows Israel, knows what Israel suffered on October 7, and knows that Israel is in no mood now for the creation of a Palestinian state. As Blinken himself said at Davos, “It’s hard to overstate the psychological impact on the country as a whole of what happened on that day.”

Yet Biden, Blinken, and the White House’s national security spokesman, John Kirby, continue to discuss it. Tellingly, however, they are not talking about it as something lurking just around the corner.

As Kirby said in a briefing on Friday, Biden, in conversation with Netanyahu the night before, “reiterated his strong conviction in the viability of a two-state solution – understanding, of course, that we’re not going to get there tomorrow, that there’s an active conflict going on, and that we want to make sure Israel has what it needs to defend itself.”

Biden himself said something telling over the weekend when quizzed about Netanyahu’s rejection of a two-state solution at a press conference Thursday night. Biden said that “there are a number of types of two-state solutions,” and that “there are a number of countries that are members of the UN that still do not have their own military.”

Back in 2009, when Netanyahu accepted the contours of a two-state solution in his famous Bar-Ilan speech, he stressed that this state must both recognize Israel as a Jewish state and be demilitarized. Over the years, this position morphed into talk about a “state-minus,” meaning the Palestinians will have all the powers to govern themselves and none of the powers to threaten Israel, and that security will have to remain in Israel’s hands.

By saying that “there are a number of types of two-state solutions,” and that not all countries need a military, Biden – knowingly or not – seemed to be inching in that direction.

But if this is something that is not going to happen any time soon, why is the Biden administration pushing the idea at all right now? The November elections play a role.

Remember when a few months ago, before October 7, there was a great deal of discussion about Biden brokering a major Mideast deal that would have the Saudis normalize ties with Israel? One of the explanations for the timing back then was that Biden hoped to pull off a major foreign policy coup before the November election that could assist him in securing a re-election.

Hamas tried to destroy that possibility with its October 7 attack, but the administration is now trying to revive it.

This explains all the recent chatter about Saudi Arabia’s willingness to still consider a deal with Israel if a Palestinian state is part of the package. And Biden’s political calculation remains the same: being able to revitalize the plan could help him in November, and dangling out the prospect of a Palestinian state could help him retain those in his party who are furious over his support of Israel during the war.

Likewise, the issue is being used for political gain in Israel as well.

This came out clearly at Netanyahu’s Thursday press conference when he said that only he could prevent the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state. “Those who speak of the day after Netanyahu are talking about the creation of a Palestinian state, led by the Palestinian Authority,” he warned.

“Israel needs security control [over] all territory west of the Jordan [River],” Netanyahu said. “This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?”

He said that Israel’s prime minister “needs to be capable of saying no to our friends,” leaving the impression that only he can do so.

NO NEW DATE has been given for early elections, but Netanyahu’s turning this into an issue – even publicly turning this into a point of contention with the White House – is an indication that he is getting ready for a campaign. If, in the past, one of Netanyahu’s tickets was presenting himself as Mr. Security, as the person that the country could rely on to keep it safe, after October 7, that argument has lost its resonance.

He needs a new ticket, and preventing a Palestinian state is the one he seems to have chosen.

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Sule Lamido, PDP, and the politics of defection.

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Former Governor of Jigawa Sate,. Alhaji Sule Lamido

By: Adamu Muhd Usman

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“Success is not by our thinking, our wish, our personal opinion, or selfish aggrandisement. It is destined and accompanied by good attitudes of honesty, gratitude, commitment, perseverance, sacrifice, endurance, selflessness, and determination.
—– Sule Lamido

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When elections are approaching, political activities hasten. There has been speculation that Sule Lamido of Jigawa State will defect from the PDP and join a new party. It appears the speculators based their thinking on PDP’s unexpected devastating defeat in the 2023 general election. However, many people see the defeat as an outcome of a referendum on the PDP’s mistakes and adamant or foolish behaviour of an ordinary Nigerian, rather than a rejection verdict on the PDP, thus the party is expected to bounce back.

This is expected to happen with the help of people like Sule Lamido and other party stalwarts. Nonetheless, with speculation rife, it’s pertinent to ask, will Sule Lamido lead a revolt to ditch the PDP and form a new party or join SDP as H.E. Malam Nasir El-Rufai calls for?

Knowing Lamido’s styles of leadership and political antecedents, notably his being and ardent disciple of late Mallam Aminu Kano of blessed memory one may without mincing words say that Sule Lamido will not leave PDP he helped to give birth to; nurtured and played a very prominent role in.

The above assertion is provided by the fact that Sule Lamido does not have a history of inconsistencies in his political career, and he is not a politician that takes decisions based on the desire to play to the gallery.

Furthermore, Lamido, being one of the founding fathers of the PDP and a man with well-established connections, with political friends and associates all over and who enjoys tremendous support across the country, is not likely going to ditch the PDP.

If Lamido wanted to leave the PDP, he could have done it with the G7 governors who defected to the All Progressive Congress (APC) in 2014/2015. And, Lamido could have been one of the most celebrated ‘defectors’ the APC would now be flaunting.

Some people have mistakenly interpreted the recent news story of the former Kaduna state governor, H.E. Malam Nasir El-Rufai, defecting from APC to SDP, whereby he called bigwigs, though he dares not to mention the name of Sule Lamido in his list or invitation because he knows perfectly well Lamido’s space to that regard is a no-go area. But Lamido has dispelled the rumours via the interview he granted with the British Broadcasting Cooperation (BBC) Hausa service.

Governor Lamido asserted, I have no intention to leave the party. We dey kampe for PDP; we dey shelele for PDP. PDP has honoured and dignified me, and I am not leaving it for tenants. I am from a home background while others are from mere house backgrounds. We are well-groomed right from our homes, and we will not leave the party for anyone, especially for anger.

This is not a time for a blame game; the PDP should all accept that they made mistakes and find ways to correct them in the future.”

What people should best expect from Sule Lamido is rebuilding, reorganising, re-energising, and remodelling the PDP into a strong opposition party for the ruling APC. For instance, Lamido is well experienced in the art of politicking and governance; he will for sure lead other PDP founding fathers and party adherents to rebrand the party. Those that were instrumental in destroying the fabric that makes the PDP a strong national party may sooner or later become inactive in the party because they do not have the party in their hearts. Only causing trouble in order to be relevant and satisfy their pocket.

Sule Lamido has unequivocally assured their teaming supporters, party followers, and other stakeholders that he has no plans to join another party, leave the PDP, or allow intruders and interlopers to take over the house they have laboured to build.

The big question is, what should they do to correct their mistakes and reengineer a new beginning for the PDP?

Firstly, political pundits strongly believe that Sule Lamido and his likes will make sure the PDP returns to its cherished initial status—accommodating all people across the nations, running on democratic ideals that allow dissent and contrary views, but moves in harmony and as a family.

Secondly, Lamido will work painstakingly to rebrand the PDP and restore its hitherto attractive national ‘face.’ The PDP is like a bee, with six legs; once one leg is removed, the party becomes handicapped, unattractive, and motionless. This is what the intruders’ and interlopers that besieged the party do not understand.

Thirdly, Lamido is an expert in persuasion, trust building, patiently listening to contrary views, and also a political guru.

These skills of Lamido will be highly useful in time to come in order to return the PDP to the foundation on which its founding fathers built it.

The PDP will not regain its position as a strong and nationally spread political party without having individuals who share the spirit of the founding fathers of the party, individuals who passionately believe in one of the preambles of its constitution: “To mobilise like-minded Nigerians under the leadership of the party to build a nation responsive to the aspirations of its people, able to satisfy the just hopes and aspirations of the Black people of the world, and to gain the confidence of the nations.”

Many of PDP’s followers trust that Sule Lamido will be one of the like-minded individuals that will lead the way in the reclamation of the PDP’s lost glory.

Dr. Sule Lamido (CON) will remain in the PDP. He had the opportunity to defect, but he did not because he believes that defection is not the best way to develop and entrench democracy.

Whatever you see today is designed by God. It is not compulsory to be on the winning side always. One can see the spirit of patience and willingness to accept the will of the people in the duo of Lamido. Many Nigerians are expecting the duo to lead in the rebirth of the PDP, rather than ditching it.

Remember, Lamido is a party Founding Father, one of the original stoics who defied the brutal military dictatorship and formed a patriotic group of committed democrats that later formed the nucleus of the PDP.

Sule Lamido is among the nine people (G9) who formed the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in 1998 along with Senator Iyorchia Ayu, Professor Jerry Gana, the late Dr. Alex Ekwueme, the late Mallam Adamu Ciroma, the late Chief Solomon Lar, the late Chief Bola Ige, the late Senator Ella, and the late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi. They confronted former Head of State, the late General Sani Abacha, on the need to quit the office and allow democracy to prosper.

Lamido and Rimi were picked and locked up in DSS cells, Rimi in Ilorin and Lamido in Maiduguri. They were only released after the sudden demise of Abacha.

Lamido, Jerry Gana, and Iyorchia Ayu are the lone PDP founding fathers still alive and on the landscape in politics and PDP.

Lamido has been consistent in PDP. He displays his sagacity in full force. He also deployed his unmatched energy and political skills in campaigning for PDP candidates from the top to the bottom from 1999 to date.

He has a history of radically confronting the military junta of Abacha for the sake of restoring democracy (PDP) to Nigeria, and he was sent to jail several times during the PRP days and the military era.

Lamido was imprisoned for his emancipation of the masses. Some of these things will give him an edge and advantage over other compatriots on the corridor of Nigerian politics and the PDP.

Lamido’s almost five decades of experience in the rough terrain of Nigerian politics is being brought to bear in this election cycle. He is so often in the news for a combination of reasons, including his imposing physical presence, his simple style of doing things, and his solid records of commitment, loyalty, achievements, consistency, and sacrifice, etc., to PDP since its creation in 1998 to date.

Sule Lamido is one of the most experienced politicians in Nigeria and is arguably the most successful governor in Nigeria since 1999 to date. Before then, he was a former unionist (PRP national youth leader), Social Democratic Party (SDP) national secretary, the party that made the late chief abiola to win as a president in the most freest, fairest, credible and peaceful election in Nigeria, a parliamentarian, and a former diplomat (minister). He has made a lot of sacrifices for this country, Nigeria. His contributions have reunited and reawakened Nigeria, and as far as politics is concerned, Lamido is one person you cannot bury or shove away.

Sule Lamido always says his mind, which in all cases aligns with the interests of the common man. He never succumbs to sentiments. He was never accused of bigotry or nepotism. He is a nationalist, liberal.

May Allah continue to prolong and preserve your life’s span. Lamido will keep working for Nigeria for the rest of his life to be peaceful, efficient, united, progressive, and great (excel).

May Nigeria rise again and work positively well. 2027 is a testing year for Nigeria. May God see us through and make it easy for us.

Adamu writes from Kafin-Hausa, Jigawa State.

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“We are all Natasha”: Senator’s sexual harassment claims roil Nigeria

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By Eromo Egbejule in Abidjan

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Last July, Nigeria’s third-most powerful man gave a rare apology on the floor of the senate which he heads.
Godswill Akpabio had chastised his colleague Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan for speaking out of turn, saying: “We are not in a nightclub”. But after receiving what he said was a deluge of insulting text messages from Nigerians, he apologised publicly a few days later.

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In recent weeks, the two have been at the centre of a political row that has gripped the country, after an interview that Akpoti-Uduaghan gave to the broadcaster Arise TV in late February in which she accused Akpabio of sexual harassment.

She alleged that in one incident, Akpabio had told her that a motion she was trying to advance could be put to the senate if she “took care” of him. In another, she said that on a tour of his house he had told her – while holding her hand – “I’m going to create time for us to come spend quality moments here. You will enjoy it.”
Akpabio has denied the allegations.

Akpoti-Uduaghan submitted a petition to the senate alleging sexual harassment, but on 6 March the ethics committee struck it out on procedural grounds. It also handed her a six-month suspension without pay, citing her “unruly and disruptive” behaviour during an unrelated argument in the senate about seating arrangements.

The accusations have dominated conversations and highlighted longstanding women’s rights issues in the socially conservative country, where no woman has ever been elected governor, vice-president or president.

Only four women serve in the 109-member senate, a drop from the seven female senators elected in 2015. The number of women in the 360-member House of Representatives has also declined, from 22 in 2015 to 17.

In a phone interview from New York on Monday last week, hours before speaking on the matter at a joint session of the Inter-Parliamentary Union and UN Women, Akpoti-Uduaghan railed against her suspension.
“This was orchestrated to silence my voice,” she said. “That action is an assault on democracy … I am not apologising for speaking my truth.”

Women’s rights groups have condemned her suspension, and hundreds of women and girls marched in the states of Lagos, Enugu, Edo and Kaduna on Wednesday during a “We are all Natasha” protest convened by the civil society coalition Womanifesto.

“Her suspension and the process that led to it was a shambolic show of shame,” said Ireti Bakare-Yusuf, a radio broadcaster and founder of the non-profit Purple Women Foundation, which is part of Womanifesto.

Ahmed Tijani Ibn Mustapha, a spokesperson for Akpabio, said Akpoti-Uduaghan’s petition alleging sexual harassment had not followed guidelines because she had authored and signed it herself rather than asking another senator to do so.

He also said that after she had refiled the petition correctly, the senate began a four-week investigation into the claims.

Akpoti-Uduaghan, an opposition People’s Democratic party (PDP) senator from the central state of Kogi, first tried to enter politics in 2019 with a run for Kogi governor. Thugs reportedly loyal to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) jeered her during the campaign, calling her a sex worker, and on one occasion attacking her and her driver. “This is definitely not an election,” she told reporters at the time. “This is almost like a war zone.”
Four years later, on the eve of the senate election she was contesting, portions of the main roads leading to her district were excavated overnight. She accused the APC of attempting to prevent her from campaigning. Authorities said they were protecting residents against terrorist attacks, citing a December 2022 bomb blast by an Islamic State affiliate.

She lost the election, but in November 2023 a tribunal overturned the results, paving the way for her to become one of Nigeria’s youngest senators.

Akpabio, a political veteran, was the subject of another sexual harassment allegation from a former public official in 2020. He denied the allegation at the time and recently said he would sue his accuser. He had previously made headlines in 2018 when he predicted an election victory for his APC party by drawing comparisons with Hitler’s invasion of Poland. Last year, shortly after becoming senate president, he was involved in another controversy when a senator was suspended for saying there were inconsistencies in the budget.

After Akpoti-Uduaghan’s suspension, other senators coalesced around Akpabio, a powerful ally of the country’s president, Bola Tinubu.

One male senator said Akpoti-Uduaghan had fabricated the claims because she was angered by her removal as chair of a coveted senate committee in February. Current female senators dismissed her claims on national TV, while one former senator said Akpoti-Uduaghan’s claims were “a sign of weakness” and that sexual harassment happened only in schools.
“Male senators do not surprise me,” said Bakare-Yusuf of the reaction. “They mansplain even the basic of black and white to justify their selfishness. As for the female senators, disappointed is an understatement [but] like all hegemonic structures, patriarchy also has gatekeepers.”

In the aftermath of her accusation, a false claim that Akpoti-Uduaghan had borne six children by six different men surfaced on social media. The senate spokesperson said a kiss she shared with her husband on the senate premises before submitting her petition was “unspeakable” and an act of “content creation”. Over the last two weeks, crowds of pro-Akpabio protesters have turned up in public to abuse her in Abuja.

“Politicians sided with the senate president whom they believe has the power to grant them favours … and the poor were paid by those who have the most money to protest,” said Glory Ehiremen, senior analyst at Lagos-based geopolitical risk advisory, SBM Intelligence.

Some opposition senators have visited Akpoti-Uduaghan to show support. She also said she had received supportive emails from women across Nigeria, including some who were afraid to speak up about their own experiences. “In Nigeria, most women who are sexually harassed in workplaces don’t even tell their husbands because they are afraid of being judged,” she said.

As the episode unfolds, more women are praising her bravery, but few think Nigeria’s #MeToo moment has arrived.
Ehiremen said an entrenched culture of impunity was a barrier to justice. “The elite Nigerian cannot get justice unless they have alliances with the ‘powerful’,” she said. “Never mind the ordinary Nigerian.”

This was first published in Guardian Newspapers

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Ekiti’s next leap!

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By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

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One of the off-cycle elections next year will take place in Ekiti State, where Governor Biodun Oyebanji will face reelection. Oyebanji has several strengths to leverage when campaigning begins, particularly his efforts to redirect the state’s political economy in a positive direction, as widely acknowledged by conventional wisdom.

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Ekiti State has navigated the current economic transformation in very steady ways. The state’s poverty level is relatively manageable, rather than crippling. The governor’s strategic intervention in agriculture has built up buffers of price-modulating as well as supply-adjustment mechanisms. This approach has effectively withstood economic headwinds, serving as a model that other states would do well to emulate.

In many ways, Oyebanji’s agricultural policies echo those of Gabriel Akinola Deko, a former Minister of Agriculture from neighbouring Ondo State. Deko, known for his astuteness, established Marketing and Commodity Boards to shield the masses from inflationary pressures. Oyebanji continues this approach!

The governor also excels in two key areas: infrastructural development and management of the political class. His efforts have secured the Federal Government’s approval for the reconstruction of the Ado-Iyin-Igede-Aramoko Itawure Road. The Bola Tinubu government has allocated N5.4 billion for this project, aiming to enhance connectivity and economic growth. As the state's resources continue to improve, the expectation is that the ongoing Ado-Ekiti Ring Road project, connecting the new airport, will also be dualized.

The dynamics of Ekiti State provide the incumbent governor with a highly favourable position, particularly in terms of electoral advantage. In a country seething in the grip of its own helplessness, Oyebanji has proven himself to be a quality leader! Fortunately for him, but unfortunately for the polity, there is currently no coherent alternative emerging from the grassroots to convincingly challenge his position.

To upset an incumbent, one needs a coherent position, even if the incumbent is laughably incompetent. It is tragic that no such alternative position is in the offing, which says a lot about the current state of politics, not just in Ekiti State but nationwide.

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

*KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk)

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