News
What is new about latest IDF intel. disclosure failures?
“We have known for several months…one could not help but view many of the disclosures as an attempt by the media to reinvent a story.”
At first glance, the big splash from KAN News on Monday night about new revelations of IDF intelligence failures related to October 7 seemed overblown.
For several months already, we have been aware of an extensive, detailed list of those failures, and as a journalist, I could not help but view many of the new disclosures as an attempt by the media to reinvent a story that was mostly written on a day when some editors must have felt they were short on news.
But at a second glance, there were two important points from the list of “revelations” that should influence how the Israeli intelligence community will be reconfigured and rebuilt in the coming months and years.
Previous reports regarding warnings of a Hamas invasion have shown that in September 2023, “V,” a junior-level intelligence officer in Unit 8200, warned her supervisor, Lt. Col. “A,” about the terrorist organization’s plans. The IDF has struggled to explain why it ignored those warnings.
“A” either did not pass on the warnings to the then-IDF intelligence chief, Maj.-Gen. Aharon Haliva, or he passed them on only sometime on October 3, in a vague fashion.
IDF underestimated Hamas’s invasion plans
The bottom line until now was that Unit 8200 neither widely shared nor put any special emphasis on the warnings.
The two new pieces of information were the detailed number of hostages to be kidnapped, as well as the idea that the IDF Southern Command knew about the latest warnings from Unit 8200.
One of the reasons that Unit 8200 and others in IDF intelligence did not take the warnings about a Hamas invasion seriously, they said, was because they were warned of potential danger in April 2023. It turned out to be a false alarm, and the action taken to prevent it was viewed as a waste of resources.
Based on that and on the idea that V did not have any idea when the Hamas invasion would take place – within days, months, or years – most viewed the intelligence as not “actionable” and as something that might only matter if there were more specifics.
One interpretation of the latest report is that Unit 8200 finally got some additional specifics, including the exact number of hostages Hamas would try to take.
Although the exact timing was still far from clear, the level of specificity of how many hostages to take could have led more intelligence officials to believe that Hamas’s planning was in a very advanced state and may be imminent.
This could have given Unit 8200 and other IDF intelligence officials sufficient backing for pushing the rest of the defense establishment harder to invest in preparing to defend against an invasion (which otherwise might be viewed as wasting resources on a non-existent threat).
The second new piece of information is the suggestion that someone in the IDF Southern Command did know about the invasion plans. This contradicts earlier reports, according to which the IDF Southern Command claimed it knew nothing about V and her warnings.
These latest allegations have firmly placed some knowledge of the invasion threat beyond IDF intelligence and into IDF Southern Command.
Ultimately, however, The Jerusalem Post has learned that the latest leaked Hamas invasion warning did not reach the top officials in the Southern Command, including the commander, Maj.-Gen. Yaron Finkleman, Brig.-Gen. Avi Rosenfeld, and IDF Southern Command Intelligence Chief Col. “A.”
This means that this second new fact may be less significant than the new information about the number of hostages.
Alternatively, if Unit 8200 failed to relay numerous warnings to the Southern Command, and if lower officers within the Southern Command failed to share all intelligence with their higher-up supervisors, it raises fundamental questions about the cooperation between the various units, and whether the Southern Command was providing sufficient safe space for lower-tier analysts to present dissonant information.
These are perhaps the most crucial questions for the future:
How can the intelligence establishment’s culture and structure be modified to ensure that dissonant opinions reach all relevant officials in the future and that such warnings, even if a long shot, are taken seriously.
Kogi State Police Command has called for cancellation of rally organized by the Constituents of the Central Senatorial District to host Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan.
In a statement sent to CAPITAL POST in Lokoja on Tuesday by the Police Public Relations Officer, SP William Ovye Aya, said it became operative for the scheduled to be put off, citing security threats.
The statement said: “Following the intelligence report on security threats in Kogi State and the subsequent ban on all forms of Rally and procession by the Kogi State Government, the Nigeria Police Force, Kogi State Police Command has called on the organisers of planned rally at Okene to cancel such event in the interest of the peace in Kogi State.
“The call for cancellation becomes necessary, noting that intelligence reveals that some hoodlums plan to hijack the process and cause disturbance of peace in the State. The Command cannot afford to jeopardize the existing peace the State is currently enjoying.
“In view of the security threat received on the planned rally, the Kogi State Police Command is therefore advising the organisers to cancel the event so as to avoid any breakdown of law and order in the State. As the Command will not hesitate to apply the full wrath of law on any one who causes disturbance of peace and order in the State.”
Senator representing Kogi East Senatorial District, Isah Jibrin (Echocho), has condoled families who lost their loved ones in the windstorm that rocked Itobe and other communities in Ofu Local Government Council.
Saddened by the devastation of the rainstorm that led to death of two persons and destruction of properties worth millions of naira, the lawmaker said, the victims wouldn’t be left alone at this trying period, stating that everything possible would be done to mitigate their pains.
In a statement issued by the Media and Communications office of the lawmaker on Monday said, his attention has been drawn to the incident even as he is out of the country, but will offer his personal contributions in cash and in kind towards alleviating the suffering of the victims during his visit to the affected communities upon his arrival.
He stated that attention of relevant government agencies will be drawn through a motion which he will sponsor when the Senate reconvenes from Sallah and Easter break to the natural disaster with a view to quickly provide succour for the victims and resettlement of displaced households.
The lawmaker said, he was aware that over 500 residents in communities of Itobe, Adumu, Itagidi, Oladebu, Ajegwu, Ofoke and others in Ofu Local Government Council were left homeless in the first rain disaster, adding that the disaster wasn’t their making.
“I shall offer my personal palliative for immediate succour to the victims as soon as I am back in the country.
“Also, I assure the victims that I will sponsor a motion that will draw attention of relevant government agencies to mobilise materials and resources to mitigate their pains, especially those rendered homeless as a result of the disaster.
Senator Isah Jibrin, further called on the National Metereological Agency to do a wider publicity on the signals and looming dangers of windstorm for citizens to be properly informed and to take caution.
Kogi State government has banned rallies and crowd related reception in the State, citing security challenges.
This was even as the suspended female Senator representing Kogi Central Senatorial District, Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan was billed for homecoming on Tuesday 1st April, 2025 which a grand reception was reportedly planned by her constituents.
In a statement issued on Monday by the Commisioner for Information and Communications, Kingsley Fanwo and obtained by CAPITAL POST on Monday in Lokoja, it cited security concerns and stressed that the State Government was committed to safety of lives and properties.
The statement said, the ban on convoys entering the State and any form of public gatherings was a proactive step to nip in the bud, breach of security as intelligence reports available to the State Government was indicative of looming crisis.
It said, the State government has just quelled crisis in parts of Kogi Local Government Council in the Western Senatorial, saying that government was committed to ensuring peace across the entire State.
Part of the statement said: “In light of credible intelligence reports, the government has deemed it necessary to take proactive measures to prevent any form of security breach that could destabilize the state.
“It is heartwarming to note that the State witnessed a peaceful Sallah, however some security threats are threatening the peace of the State. In Kasemiya, Katubo and Umozu Ette all in Kogi Local Government Area in Kogi West, fishing activities have resulted in serious crisis, leading to the loss of two lives.
“All fishing activities in Kogi Local Government Area is hereby suspended until peace is completely restored. Security operatives have been deployed to the affected areas to restore peace and implement our directive.
“Also, in Ankpa Local Government Area, specifically in Enjema District, a communal clash between Ika-Odele and Ika Ochala is threatening the peace of Kogi East.
“The State Government has deployed security to also calm the situation to avert further loss of lives and property.
“The ongoing peace meeting between the two communities as facilitated by the State Government must be sustained.
“In Kogi Central, intelligence at our disposal point to the fact that some elements are planning to stage some violent rallies in the guise of political and religious agitations. This is to create a platform for wanton destruction and breakdown of law and order.”
Meanwhile, Natasha’s homecoming invitation which has already gone wide showed that the reception was to be held in her honour on Tuesday.
CAPITAL POST recalled that Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan was suspended for six months by the 10th Senate for allegedly breaching Senat3mStandinb Rules.
She also accused the Senate President,Godswill Obot Akpabio of sexual harassment and while she had attended the Interparliamentary Union, IPU in Geneva to speak on her harrowing experiences in the Senate.
At the time of filing this report, no statement has emanated Natasha’s media minders in response to the ban issued by Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo government.
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