By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

One of the off-cycle elections next year will take place in Ekiti State, where Governor Biodun Oyebanji will face reelection. Oyebanji has several strengths to leverage when campaigning begins, particularly his efforts to redirect the state’s political economy in a positive direction, as widely acknowledged by conventional wisdom.

Ekiti State has navigated the current economic transformation in very steady ways. The state’s poverty level is relatively manageable, rather than crippling. The governor’s strategic intervention in agriculture has built up buffers of price-modulating as well as supply-adjustment mechanisms. This approach has effectively withstood economic headwinds, serving as a model that other states would do well to emulate.

In many ways, Oyebanji’s agricultural policies echo those of Gabriel Akinola Deko, a former Minister of Agriculture from neighbouring Ondo State. Deko, known for his astuteness, established Marketing and Commodity Boards to shield the masses from inflationary pressures. Oyebanji continues this approach!

The governor also excels in two key areas: infrastructural development and management of the political class. His efforts have secured the Federal Government’s approval for the reconstruction of the Ado-Iyin-Igede-Aramoko Itawure Road. The Bola Tinubu government has allocated N5.4 billion for this project, aiming to enhance connectivity and economic growth. As the state's resources continue to improve, the expectation is that the ongoing Ado-Ekiti Ring Road project, connecting the new airport, will also be dualized.

The dynamics of Ekiti State provide the incumbent governor with a highly favourable position, particularly in terms of electoral advantage. In a country seething in the grip of its own helplessness, Oyebanji has proven himself to be a quality leader! Fortunately for him, but unfortunately for the polity, there is currently no coherent alternative emerging from the grassroots to convincingly challenge his position.

To upset an incumbent, one needs a coherent position, even if the incumbent is laughably incompetent. It is tragic that no such alternative position is in the offing, which says a lot about the current state of politics, not just in Ekiti State but nationwide.

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

*KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk)

By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

We are at midterm, which means that the next electoral cycle has already started. Unfortunately, governance will begin to slow down as politicking and jockeying for advantage become more pronounced, distracting from the real work of administration and the quest to achieve sustainable development.

The ruling party currently holds a significant advantage, facing an ill-defined and unfocused array of interest groups lacking cohesion. Unlike parliamentary systems, presidential systems don’t truly have an opposition; concept. Instead, they offer a focused alternative platform, presenting a distinct and more positive stance than the governing party’s. It sums it all that, within the reality of a very difficult economic crisis, there is no realistic, properly-costed alternative on offer. This is a clear indication of intellectual indolence and the absence of political parties showing up our present reality that what we have are Special Purpose
Vehicles (SPVs).

To understand the 2027 outlook, we need to examine past election data, shifting alliances and current trends. One key point from the past data is that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), now President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, got 63% of his total votes from the 1966 Northern Region. This raises important questions: What does this mean if there's growing disaffection with the current administration in the North and how will this impact the national majority that brought Tinubu to power?

Assuming, of course, that there's genuine disaffection in the North, rather than just posturing by those seeking advantage, it’s essential to recognize that there’s no ‘monolithic North’. So, the strength of the Tinubu coalition will vary significantly from state to state. In Kaduna, for instance, the APC is currently gaining ground due to defections, despite Abubakar Atiku’s comfortable win in the last presidential election.

Given these dynamics, projections suggest Tinubu will win Kaduna by a comfortable margin in 2027, particularly as Southern Kaduna appears to be shifting towards the APC for the first time. The dynamics will shift from state to state, requiring analysis from this perspective, particularly as it affects senatorial and local government elections. With an expanding base in the South, the odds strongly favour Tinubu’s reelection by a convincing margin. Furthermore, the opposition’s disorganization and focus on personalities rather than programs undermine
their effectiveness.

Had Nigeria been blessed with a robust opposition, it would likely have by now replicated the ‘Popular Front’ model, which was successfully done in Europe and Latin America in the past. This approach, which originated in the 1920s, reached its peak with Salvador Allende Gossens’ victory in Chile in 1971, and the subsequent formation of a Government of Popular Unity. A Popular Front is essentially an alliance of diverse groups, activists, political parties, and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs). In Latin America, it incorporated the LT, which was rooted in the Catholic Church. The Popular Front's key strength lay in its clearly-defined alternative economic program, which aimed to achieve macro-economic stability as a means to attain social justice.

Influential figures like Pope Francis and St. Karol Józef Wojtyła emerged from the Liberation Theology Movement (LT). Other prominent figures associated with this movement include St. Óscar Romero, Jamie Cardinal Sin, Carlos Filipe Ximenes Belo and Jean-Bertrand Aristide. This movement was particularly powerful in Latin American countries like Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. It was similar to Nigeria’s National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), with
its own political, socioeconomic and related programmes.

In today’s Nigeria, many of those competing for power have no intention of forming a popular front that would lead to a government of popular unity. Otherwise, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) wouldn’t have been so entangled in the Godswill Akapbio/Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan drama at a time when Sunday Jackson, who had killed his attacker, was facing a Supreme Court ruling upholding his conviction. If you ask CAN about Leah Sharibu’s whereabouts, they might respond flippantly, saying she’s sipping ‘fura de nono’ in its coldest state, somewhere in the Sambisa Forest. Similarly, inquire about what has come out of the senseless murder of Deborah Samuel,
and the usual refrain, ‘God gives, God takes; glory be to God’, would rent the air! It is that bad; and it is
sad!

For the religious leaders, religion is more of a means to an end even as the followers continue to wallow in self-deceit. The sanctity of traditional thrones in Nigeria has also been carelessly and dangerously politicized that any Ganduje could just wake up from the ‘other room’ and disrupt an age-old system without considering the consequences of his actions. So, how do we develop a society in the midst of all kinds of social-yet-avoidable threats?

Without an alternative perspective and the formation of a unified popular front, 2027 is looking like it’s going to be an anticlimax. Why? There will be gales of decamping to the ruling party, eliminating any impetus for policy review. It therefore means that Nigeria is actually between a rock and a hard place, with an opposition driven by self-interest rather than a genuine desire to provide alternative solutions and position itself as a viable government-in-waiting. Even Organized Labour today resembles what Karl Marx described as “an aristocracy of labour”, rather than an organization fighting for sustainable development and the continuous elevation of living standards. The country will have to grin and bear it, for such is the nature of a political economy that’s based on rent seeking, rather than building a sustainable production base.

Tinubu’s reelection in 2027 appears certain, and one doesn’t need to be a soothsayer or visit Okija Shrine to foresee this outcome. As Detective Sherlock Holmes would say, “Elementary logic, Watson!”

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

*KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria ( ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk )

By Ehichioya Ezomon

Former British statesman, Labour Party politician and twice Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (1964 to 1970 and 1974 to 1976) James Harold Wilson (1916-1995), stated that: “A week is a long time in politics,” which, in today’s world of social media, is being updated to, “A day in politics is a lifetime.”

Thus, ahead of the February 2027 General Election in Nigeria, “a day in politics is like a lifetime” in which anything – the anticipated and the unexpected – could happen in the political arena, with one politician already predicting the poll outcome, and embarking on a warpath to hinder those on his radar even up to 2031.

But how many political combats can former Kaduna State Governor and ex-Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai win till Election Day in 2027 and beyond? How many of the politicians posturing for elective offices will grace his “enemy list”? Will he ultimately compromise and reconcile with his “enemies”?
Controversial and outspoken el-Rufai has a grievance, which’s that President Bola Tinubu, who promised him a ministerial portfolio didn’t deliver, but was actually the one who didn’t want him in his government.

To el-Rufai, it’s Tinubu – and not the Senate over alleged security concerns – who gave the order for his ministerial rejection in 2023. He recalled that proposing to name him for the power ministry, the president had told him, “Let’s join hands to defeat the electricity mafia,” adding that he accepted to serve because of that challenge.

In his extensive and no-holds-barred interview on Arise TV on February 24, 2025, el-Rufai said: “The president begged me publicly to come and serve in his government.

“After two months of negotiations, we finally agreed that he would nominate me as minister. I think along the line, the president changed his mind. Please, don’t believe the story that the NASS (National Assembly) rejected me; it has nothing to do with this. The president didn’t want me in his cabinet.”

Rhetorically, el-Rufai queried: “What was the security issue? I had been the Governor for eight years in one of the most difficult States in the country. Where is the (security) report? What about other ministers who are far less qualified and have huge controversies around them that scaled through because the president made a call?”

If the President, as el-Rufai claimed, “made a call” to the Senate on behalf of some nominees, why didn’t Tinubu do likewise for el-Rufai, who most Nigerians were sure would be the first to be cleared by the Senate, owing to how Tinubu publicly cajoled him to be part of his cabinet.

Nigerians were elated over speculations that el-Rufai would be named the Minister of Power due to his antecedents as Minister of the FCT, which he sanitised in line with the territory’s Master Plan.

And they can’t forget that iconic video of Tinubu and el-Rufai walking almost hand-in-hand when then-President-elect visited Kaduna State, and pleaded with el-Rufai to be part of his government, even as el-Rufai stated he wanted to take leave from public service.

But alas, el-Rufai’s screening by the Senate ended in controversy, with claims that the Department of State Services (DSS) had issues with his clearance, and that the Kaduna Senators didn’t suppot his nomination – a main criterion for a nominee’s approval by the Senate.

Barring any undercurrents, Tinubu owes el-Rufai a reciprocal gesture for a yeoman’s job of fighting for the Presidency to rotate to Southern Nigeria in 2023. El-Rufai thrust his chest out in support of the zoning, at least under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which benefited Tinubu!

If, indeed, Tinubu hadn’t a hand in el-Rufai’s rejection by the Senate, why didn’t he carve out another appointment for him in government, which doesn’t require Senate clearance? That he didn’t do so is food for thought, as el-Rufai’s only scratched the surface, and Tinubu remains taciturn about what went wrong along the way!

El-Rufai also spoke about how he and the Kaduna chapter of the APC endorsed Tinubu among the aspirants for President in 2023, saying: “I don’t know if I will support Tinubu in 2027. I will evaluate the situation at the time and I will consult widely. When I supported President Tinubu before the primaries, it was a decision that the leaders of APC took in Kaduna. Who do we support?

“We succeeded in ensuring that power goes to the South, and we know that all the Northern candidates (then-Kogi State Governor) Yahaya Bello, and (then-Senate President) Ahmad Lawan will go nowhere.

“Among the southerners, who do we support? They know those that are my friends. Tinubu was not my friend. I was never close to him. (In spite their political association of over a decade, from 2012 to 2023 – pre-formation of the APC, and through the campaigns and conduct of the 2015, 2019 and 2023 General Elections).

“But the consensus of the APC in Kaduna was that we should support Bola Tinubu because he is the one that is more likely to win. Politicians make these calculations. In 2027, I am going to consult the same people. We are going to take the same decision, which candidate to support and in which party!”

El-Rufai admitted he might not possess the same clout in 2027 as in 2023, to determine who and from which region the APC candidate will emerge. “Now, I am a private citizen. I am not sure I would be in the APC 2027, so I cannot answer that question (about his support for a Southern candidate). Now in 2027, I will not be a governor, so I will not have the sort of clout that I had in 2023,” he said.

Going haywire, el-Rufai boasts of rallying like-minded Nigerians, to upstage Tinubu in 2027. He’s created an “enemy list” that so far contains Tinubu; the National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu; and Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani, who el-Rufai “anointed” to succeed him in 2023.

El-Rufai’s tackling Tinubu from the angle of performance of his administration barely two years in the saddle. And he’s given the President and his team the thumbs down, as one of the reasons he may not endorse him for re-election in 2027.

In his Arise TV interview, el-Rufai asked if Tinubu has performed averagely to contemplate running for a second term, saying, “As a private citizen, I can afford to be reckless and say, ‘You know what? We gave the southerners their chance. They gave us Tinubu; has he done well? If he hasn’t done well by 2027, let’s vote him out’” (and vote in a northerner).

El-Rufai talked about a “Project to destroy el-Rufai,” allegedly motivated by Mallam Ribadu’s purported ambition to succeed Tinubu in 2031, even as he accused Governor Sani of working with Ribadu, and levelling corruption allegations against him, to destroy his image.

“This project… is Nuhu Ribadu’s conception. He is the architect and builder of that project. He is the one working with Uba Sani to implement it. So far, it has been frustrating for them,” el-Rufai said.

Denying el-Rufai’s claim, Ribadu, in a post on X platform on February 24, stated: “If my silence wouldn’t be misconstrued as consent, I would have ignored him. I am too preoccupied with my current assignment to engage in a media fight with Nasir el-Rufai or anyone else.

“Despite the incessant baiting and attacks, I have never spoken ill of Nasir on record anywhere. This is out of respect for our past association and our respective families. I will not start today. I, however, urge the public to disregard El-Rufai’s statements against me.”

On the claim by el-Rufai that he’s planning a 2031 presidential bid, Ribadu stated: “For the avoidance of doubt, I want to put it on record that I have never discussed running for president in 2031 with anybody.

“All my focus and energy are geared completely towards the advancement of Nigeria and the success of President Tinubu’s administration. I therefore ask Nasir el-Rufai to allow me to face my onerous national assignment, just as I do not bother myself with his own affairs.”

El-Rufai, like some topshots, boycotted the APC first caucus meeting under Tinubu’s headship on February 25, stating: “Unfortunately, I won’t attend the APC national caucus meeting, because I will be on my way to Cairo where I spend most of my time. I didn’t get adequate notice.

“The constitution of our party requests 21 days or I think 14 days’ notice for this kind of national organ meeting. I don’t think that notice was given. If it was given, I don’t think I’d received such an invitation. I’ve my plans, and I am leaving tomorrow (February 25). Many of my friends will attend and they will give me updates. I don’t think I will miss anything. Ramadan is starting. I’ve made my own plans, too.”

Anyway, el-Rufai said he’s been vocal about his grievances with the APC and its leadership, especially his earlier declaration that, “he’d not left the APC, but it’s the APC that’d left him.”

“When the party meets, I think I’ve shouted loud and clear. So, we’ll wait and see what the party will do about it. I don’t have to be there. I’m not the only member of the party that’s unhappy” (about APC’s alleged deviation from its core progressive principles and values).

It wasn’t all gloom and doom about President Tinubu and his economic policies, and reported lopsided appointments that favour the Yoruba. “I support some of his (Tinubu’s) policies; most of the economic policies are the right orthodox policies, but the sequencing is wrong and the quality of the people implementing the reforms leaves much to be desired” el-Rufai said.

“President Tinubu is appointing his own boys, not because they’re Yoruba, and most of his appointments do not reasonably cover the Southwest. People should stop confusing the two; the appointments are not balanced, but it’s not a Yoruba thing. Please, don’t punish the Yoruba.”

Despite hobnobbing with and chaperoning former Vice President and ex-presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, across the power bases in the country, el-Rufai ruled out joining the PDP, but may find another platform “to pursue the progressive values he believes in if he can’t find them in the APC.”

“(But) one thing I can say for sure is that PDP is not a party I will go to, ever. I thought about it and decided long ago, and nothing has changed; in fact, if anything, the PDP has gotten worse,” he said.

With friends like Mallam el-Rufai, President Tinubu, Mallam Ribadu and Governor Sani don’t need enemies! Who’ll be next to appear on el-Rufai’s “enemy list” as he proceeds apace towards his 2027 goal of removing Tinubu and the APC from power? The political arena is pregnant with anxiety and anticipation!

(END)

Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria. Can be reached on X, Threads, Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp @EhichioyaEzomon. Tel: 08033078357