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Ukraine: Is Putin winning his war?

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By Amadin Uyi

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This is the question many are asking
But following the Russia-Ukraine war in the last two months, it will be wise to make your conclusions from the events on the battle field and other related events that have contributed in the last two months.

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No 1: Putin’s Objectives
Putin has changed his objectives on more than three occasions. This is because he has been unable to achieve them as planned. No wonder there was talk of sacking high ranking intelligence chiefs last month.

The first objective was a change in government following beliefs Zelensky would abandon Ukraine with his family
Yes, Zelensky the comical actor that became a President and many thought had played into the hands of Western powers, Europe and the US. Unfortunately Zelensky refused to flee Ukraine even after Putin repeatedly refused to pick his calls at the onset of the war, he has however been able to rally Ukrainians from all over the world to come back home to fight for their country.

He has been able to rally Europe and US to send him weapons he desperately needs, though many have come late, it is evident that the war is taking a different course.

Secondly Putin changed the objective to take over the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, arrest Zelensky and plant his stooge just as he has done in Belarus, did this work? NO.

After almost a month of camping outside the capital which first started with the over 30kms long convoy heading to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, the Russian soldiers could not enter Kyiv as their effort was futile, the Ukrainian army which has been at war since 2014 at the Donbas region, amassing enough grit and experience was a hard nut to crack

The Russians had to abandon their positions for a new offensive in the Eastern front.

The Fall Of Mariupol
Some look at the fall of Mariupol as Russia’s ability to dominate Ukraine easily but they forget that this came with Putin’s next objective after abandoning his two initial objectives which the Russian Army had been unable to accomplish.

Mariupol is separated by the Kalmius river from Russia and in the range of heavy enemy artillery. With a population of almost five hundred thousand, Mariupol was one of the most beautiful cities in Ukraine and the 10th largest in the country. While Putin changed his objective following a fierce Ukrainian resistance on other fronts, the new objective was create a land corridor from occupied Crimea through Mariupol to Donbas and Luhansk regions where his sponsored separatists were doing their jobs.

Just like the atrocities in occupied Bucca, the Russians thought bombing Mariupol which was heavily defended by the Azovstal regiment was key, they leveled the city killing thousands of non-combatant civilians, a crime well recognized by international conventions but did Putin care? No, just like past experiences in Georgia and Chechnya showed Putin would do anything to achieve his objectives.

However it is good to count Russia’s loses at this time, losing over 25 senior commanders including over 7 generals, losing it’s star flagship among it’s blacksea fleet; the Moskva to a country that does not have a navy does not suggest all is going down well with the campaign, over two hundred crew men still remain unaccounted for
Now the campaign has exposed the weakness of the Russian military, the whole of Europe is now asking the same question, is Russia still a super power?

Just like 48 year old General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had been telling his country in the last few years, his prediction became true, the Russian war would come upon them, reforms in the Ukrainian military from operational structure and command adopting a NATO style bottom’s up approach was yielding result compared to the soviet style Russian Top to Bottom approach which was dropping down generals like empty bottles of beer.

Communities taken by Russia in the first three days of the campaign were being taken back one after the other, target supply lines, give unit commanders a certain level of autonomy to make decisions on the field though not deviating from their primary objectives, these decisions helped commanders at the top to reassess general decisions passed to unit commanders, target logistic hubs and supply lines, cut the power of the enemy and ensure he does not have capacity to inflict any harm, this was Ukraine’s focus.

Thousands of tanks which rolled in Ukraine, if not being decimated by American stingers were being abandoned by Russian soldiers because of lack of fuel and rations. The Ukrainians were simply targeting their logistic hubs, no hungry soldier will have the ability to fight in a foreign land, no tank no matter had sophisticated their weaponry was would move without fuel
Indeed General Valerii is a genius…
As at today, Ukrainian forces have not only pushed Russian soldiers out of it’s 2nd largest city of Kharkhiv but have driven them back into Belgorod
The Russians had attempted to encircle Kharkhiv after amassing a large force in Belgorod, began shelling but at this moment Kharkhiv remains firmly in Ukraine’s hands.

Belgorod administration are even accusing the Ukrainian’s of shelling Belgorod though this remains far from Ukrainians objective which is not offensively entering Russia but defending its territory.

Unlike in the early days of the campaign when Zelensky needed to make the call to Putin, Zelensky has proven not to be the comedian many take him to be, he is actually now negotiating from a position of strength and has told Russian negotiators that any settlement that includes a forfeiture of any Ukrainian territory will not be even considered at all, don’t forget that Ukraine dismissed Russia’s call twice to surrender Mariupol, Mariupol might be gone for now in terms of infrastructure, but Ukraine are more confident of rebuilding in the future.

Are Western Sanctions Working?
This has been the biggest question pro Russia pundits have asked in the last few weeks. Putin had been planning this campaign for years so had prepared for sanctions thinking it will have no effect on Russia, however Putin was wrong, sanctions don’t have immediate impact but overtime will cripple the Russian economy and their ability to wage war.

Russia makes 285 million dollars a day from Europe for selling oil and gas
This Revenue will be cut off as sevral countries have expressed their readiness to end Russia’s oil and gas dependency and dominance, yes Russia will see new markets maybe in the East but I tell you, they cannot and will not be as lucrative as what it makes daily for now, so just in a matter of months, they will lose their ability to keep their economy going.

Besides some think the sanctions are only going to affect the Russia economy but a big no, they do not estimate it’s effects on Russia’s military capabilities, Russia needs to continue manufacturing heavy artillery to keep it’s war going.

Russia is a super power today because of it’s big weapons, those keenly following the campaign have now confirmed that following intense bombardments of Ukraine cities, Russia is running out of stock of heavy weaponry which cannot be replaced in the near future as they need components from other countries and cannot access them because of the sanctions.

Russia is now resorting to soviet era missles because it has run out of modern precision guided missiles
This was one of the ultimate intents of US and NATO, wait them out, when they no longer have the capacity to inflict heavy damages then crush the head of the snake.

Now the whole of Europe is united against one enemy because of an aging leader who did not want to outlive the glory days of the Soviet era

Warsaw pact countries are now turning to NATO for security guarantees

If Russia invaded Ukraine because of NATO membership which was a big fat lie but just an excuse it claimed, what will it do to Finland who has been preparing for a showdown with Russia since the end of the second world war.

The Fins are no pushovers, they have invested in their military in the last few years.

Finland’s constitution mandates every male Finnish citizen between 18-60 years to undergo a mandatory military service, interested women are also eligible to apply, so what they lack in size, their population of about 5.5 million in number possess in capacity
Now looking at the actual numbers, 2021 estimates claim males between the ages of 18-59 in Finland amount approximately to 2.74 million persons, so we are talking about 2.74 million persons already trained to shoot a gun and understand military command and drills, we have not added the women yet, no wonder NATO says Finnish membership will boost it’s military capabilities
Yes Turkey has shown resistance to Finnish membership but we know that all this can change on the dialogue table, respect Turkey’s reservations and prove to them you will be their partner
The finnish I will tell you are ready for war.

Not only that, Finnish government has agreed to increase it’s defence spending by over 2 billion euros, an approximate $2.2 billion following the war in Ukraine.

So let us see how Russia will protect it’s 80 mile border with Finland after sending almost 195 thousand soldiers into Ukraine that has not achieved any
Significant progress

There is absolute no gainsaying that with a rapidly increasing defence budget and one of the largest and strongest artilleries in Europe, Finland will undoubtedly add to the military muscle of the NATO alliance, all this was catalyze by Putin’s infamous gamble in Ukraine

I just wonder if Putin will have the balls to stage a campaign against Finland

What we are gradually seeing is an end to the Soviet era of domination, Putin needs to save face, someway somehow he needs to end his military operation (hic) in Ukraine and shamefully retreat back into Russia but this time without Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk and even plans he had for Transnistra in Moldova.

Did US and NATO Mislead Ukraine?
Anyone who tells you Ukraine was misled by the US and NATO does not understand international politics and war, this was the best opportunity for the US to weaken its arch enemy Russia and annihilate their military which for many years had sent shivers down the spine of many nations without firing one bullet from an American soldier, the US knows that the battlefield in Ukraine must not end in a truce, it is either Russia goes down now or never.

Billions of Russia’s assets have been frozen due to sanctions, they will help build Ukraine. Many never estimated the Ukrainian resolve to be as fierce as they have proven in the last two months but we always forget they came from the same offshoot with Russia.

Ukrainian has become the most popular country and the most celebrated in the last two months, receiving both military and foreign aid in trillions, yes thousands have died but their death will not be in vain.

Some say the war could have been avoided, yes, not from the US side but from the Russian side if Putin had not played into the hands of the west.

It was Putin that played into the hands of US and NATO and not vice versa, that is why one must never be predictable, for people like Putin, they only see what they want to see and hear what he wants to hear.

American Philosopher Avram Noam Chomsky says “You are responsible for the predictable consequences of your actions”, true, Putin must take responsibility for his actions.

Some think because he has never had military experience and the Russians have never fought a direct military campaign, they have only been involved in crushing smaller countries and using proxies to create problems before any eventual military campaign.

The truth is the media shy General Valerii Zaluzhnyi will be the hero of the campaign after it is over because he has used a smaller, less equipped Ukrainian military to subdue a once feared super power like Russia.

US, EUROPE, NATO Alliance
The war in Ukraine definitely changed many things especially the perception of Russia worldwide, Europe has become more united, Ukraine has demystified Russia’s super power status and NATO has become bolder.

One year ago, no country in the world will ever think of having a direct or indirect showdown with Russia, even the U.S.

We are talking about an age long enemy of the United states, the Russian military machine was avoided at all cost thus the initial restraint by NATO and her allies at the start of the war to avoid a conflict with Russia, no one wanted to be the country that will dare and face superpower + Nuclear power Russia.

But in all sincerity, is it the same today? I don’t think so.

Even former Soviet era countries like Czech are already sending Russian made tanks to Ukraine.

Let’s not get the facts wrong, Russia continues to have a bigger, more equipped military than Ukraine… many expected it would run down Ukraine in a matter of days however it has been unable to.

The atrocities in Bucca and several other towns initially occupied by Russian forces will be remembered for many years to come, those in Mariupol and now in Odessa where indiscriminate bombings are targeting civilian populations shows Russia is getting more desperate to achieve any objective it can to save face.

Towns like Kherson that has been under Russian occupation have met stiff resistance from the populace thus Putin’s inability to conduct a sham referendum like the one conducted in Crimea after it was annexed in 2014 thus the Russian forces has had a difficult time taking over full administrative control of the town.

So the question which was once asked at the beginning of this opinion piece after putting together all events that have played up since the commencement of the war is…

Is Putin Winning his War in Ukraine?

Written by Amadin Uyi, a journalist from Abuja, Nigeria
amadin2000@yahoo.com

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Remembering late Alhaji Dan Sallah, late Alhaji Garba mai biredi and other good people

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By Adamu Muhd Usman

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If a man is endowed with a generous mind, that is the best of nobility, and you are measured not by how much you undertake but by what you finally accomplish. In life, when you help the people around you to be good, you surely become the best. The people to be discussed in this column need to be attached to some of the above sayings. These personalities touched lives, for the value of a life is measured by the lives it touched.

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The late Alhaji Musa Abubakar, popularly known and called ‘Alhaji Musa Dan Sallah’ or ‘Alhaji Dan Sallah,’ was known for his atypical religious commitments, compassion, and distinctive philanthropy.

If Dangote is the most successful businessman in the world of today, Alhaji Musa Dan Sallah was the most successful businessman in Kafin-Hausa in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. If Dangote becomes famous for his wealth, religious engagements, and philanthropy, Alhaji Dan Sallah too.

Alhaji rose from a small business to a dealer and distributor of cement (Ashaka), flour, fuel, gas, and kerosene, as well as a marsh, rearing animals, and farming in both the rainy season and irrigation system.

His business flourished drastically despite his immense donations to charity and zakat giving. He established Islamiyya schools, encouraged, helped, and supported religious teaching and learning and clerics and pupils/students.

Alhaji Musa Dan Sallah built dozens of mosques (Masjid), including Friday (Juma’at) mosques. In and outside Kafin-Hausa town in Jigawa state. To my knowledge, I have never heard, seen, or known a person in our community who built a mosque like Alhaji Musa Abubakar Dan Sallah, the second to him, politics aside, don girma Allah (For God’s sake) is the present Jigawa state governor, Malam Umar Namadi (FCA), a.k.a. Dan Modi. And he has been doing that even before he delved into politics.

One of the things that makes me remember Alhaji Musa Dan Sallah in the month of Ramadan, during fasting. The way and manner he plans and gives out iftar and sadaqat (offering) must be eulogised. Alhaji Musa shared even meat; can someone remember pigeons (Baraysi or Tattabaru)? May Allah reward Alhaji Dan Sallah.

In the second republic (1979), he was an NPN party man and a leader. He was generous even in politics. ‘A kind politician’

Alhaji Musa Abubakar Dan Sallah was the grandfather of Shu’aib Isyaku, a.k.a. Dan Ladi Bayani. He was also the grandfather of Hajia Rakiya Musa Zakari and the biological father of my friend Alhaji Muhammad A Musa, a.k.a. Alhaji Bala, the former Kafin-Hausa local government secretary during H.E. Badaru’s tenure.

Alhaji Musa Abubakar Dan Sallah was a remarkable man of faith, kindness, simplicity, and generosity. He was deeply committed to fostering relationships, promoting reconciliation, and ensuring that everything is done in order, like the spread of Islam.

His house was a mecca of sorts for children, destitute and orphans who thronged in droves, especially during the Zakat period and the month of Ramadan for succour. Alhaji Musa Dan Sallah was a cheerful giver, and God loves cheerful givers. May Allah reward him and grant him eternal rest.

Alhaji Garba mai biredi is a name that rang in the 70s and 80s, especially when it comes to taking care of Almajirai (Islamic pupils/students) and their Malams (teachers). He devoted his life to helping, supporting, and encouraging learning and teaching of the Qur’an.

Also, when it comes to the issue of bakery in and outside Kafin-Hausa for deliciousness, health, affordability, and all that, just put a full stop there. The bakery is still in existence, which is the present day called ‘Salama bread.’ Thank God, his children have emulated the late father’s attitudes of faithfulness, generosity, simplicity, gentility, humility, etc.

I also remember him at the time of the Ramadan fast for what he is doing at iftar and other goodies he used to share with the general public. When you tried coming to his masjid (mosque) close to his house, you will love to come the next day for iftar (breaking the fast).

Alhaji Garba was faithful, an employer of labour, philanthropist, lover, helper, supporter, and encourager of Islamic religious activities. His moralities are worth commending and emulating. He was a very simple, gentle, humble, accommodating, simple-headed man, kind-hearted person, and so friendly. We exchanged nice pleasantries and jokes with him. He does call me ‘Dan Fulani’ as a native/tribal/cultural joke between Fulani and ancient or who were connected with Bare-bari (Kanuri people). May Allah reward him and have mercy on him.

The third person was the late ‘Alhaji, Malam, Baba Idris Suleiman.’ He is an elder brother to Baba Toro. Baba Idi, as some called him. He is the father of Hajiya Hauwa (something). and Alhaji Bello Mam B.

This old man was simple, gentle, and very religious. He liked commiting his life to Islamic activities. He was humble, gentle, and humane attitudes will not give you an edge; he is from a royal family. He is humane and simple to the core.

I remember him always when it comes to magnanimity. Yes, in kindness and generosity he always comes to my memory, especially during the month of Ramadan (fast) because I can vividly reflect back on my memory and guess or say it right. Back in the 70s and 80s, and partly in the 90s, there was no household (family) in the entire Kafin-Hausa town that did not benefit from his generosity at Ramadan every year. That ‘funkaso’ (wheat cake) Ayyah!!! May Allah reward Baba Malam Idi and admit him in Al-Jannar Firdaus.

The fourth person was an all-round businessman. If you are talking of a typical, encompassing, promising business tycoon in Hausa land when you mention the person in the name of Alhaji Ismail, popularly known as Alhaji Badali, just match break. His name as a very wealthy man rang in Kafin-Hausa and its surroundings in the 70s and 80s. He engaged in farming, textiles, PZ (provisions), and transportation. Despite being a very rich man, his lifestyle was worth extolling, commending, and emulating. He was a humane, religious, and easygoing gentleman. His house was just a mecca of sorts, with people mostly his employees and those who came to seek help in one way or the other. He is the biological father of Muhammadu Gwadancy and my friend, Alhaji Musa Abdul Aziz, a.k.a. (Hajindo).

Alhaji Ismail promoted peace and made Kafin-Hausa a liberal place and brought positive initiatives to the community. He helped many to be their best and stand on their own. A philanthropist and a businessman. His life is a lesson and worth emulating. May Allah reward him and place him in the high garden. (Al-Janna)

The person at this juncture is last, not the least, in the list. He is my biological father, Malam (Alhaji) Usman Suleiman, popularly known and called ‘Manu.’. Manu is a name driven from Usman (u) by the Fulbe (Fulani). I can’t be selfish and self-centred if I include my father among the list of the persons in the Kafin-Hausa community who did something worthy of eulogising, commending, remembrance, and emulation. Because he did something that is a virtue.

In the 70s, 80s, and 90s, when any person on transit or a stranger, visitor, or wayfarer stepped into Kafin-Hausa town and he or she or they didn’t know anybody or didn’t have a place to put off. The person will be told and directed to go to ‘Manu’s house.’ If the person arrives at our place, even if my dad isn’t around, the person will get food to eat, water to drink, and a place to sleep, and no matter the number of people, when they come, they will definitely be attended to (accommodated). Also, there used to be a villa of Fulanis; the house used to be a Mecca of sorts, especially on market days and during festivities. Our house is an open house for everyone.

My father was a humane, philanthropic, reserved, accommodating, and well-orientated, civilised Fulani man. He believed in giving, as he said goodness comes from giving, and givers never lack. Also, those who want to live meaningfully and well must help enrich the lives of others. It is true, those who choose to be happy must help others find happiness, for the welfare of each is bound up with the welfare of all. May Allah reward him as well and admit him in Jannatul Firdaus, with the rest and all of us.

May Allah accept us if our lives come to an end. May Allah ease us from this trying moment. May Nigeria rise again and work positively well.

Adamu writes from Kafin-Hausa, Jigawa State.

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Malam Nasir El-Rufai ‘s coup and President Bola Tinubu’s counter coup

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What many Nigerians may not know, is that President Bola Tinubu and former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, had parted ways long before the 2023 presidential election.
Whatever political relationship that existed between two, hit the hard rocks shortly after Muhammadu Buhari emerged president in the 2015 presidential election. Watchers of the power circle were quick to observe, that Buhari openly displayed his fascination with Tinubu’s strategic moves that paved the way for his emergence as the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

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Buhari acknowledged the fact that without Tinubu’s mastery of the game, there was no way he could have beaten heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Aminu Tambuwal who contested the APC ticket with him. From beating the presidential primary hurdles, to clinching the APC ticket and capping it with a resounding victory in the 2015 presidential election, Buhari more or less elevated Tinubu to the status of his political god.

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At his swearing-in ceremony on May 29, 2015, Buhari could hardly conceal his admiration for Tinubu. He kept pumping the hand of the former Lagos State governor in numerous hand shakes and gave him several pats in the back at every close encounter. It became obvious to the public that Buhari had found a benefactor and political godfather in Tinubu. What with his previous three failed attempts at the presidency in 2003, 2007 and 2011.

However, the camaraderie was short lived. Along the line, Buhari started giving Tinubu the cold shoulder a few months into the first leg of his presidency. And for a man not given to much restraint, Buhari continued to drive a wedge between Tinubu and his presidency. It wasn’t long before the content of a leaked memo to Buhari, authored by El-Rufai, revealed that Tinubu’s contribution to Buhari’s emergence as president was being “exaggerated.”

At that point, Tinubu got to understand why his initial chummy relationship with Buhari suddenly grew tepid. The thinly veiled rejection from the then president kept growing. The one-sided cold war became so pronounced that Tinubu’s wife, Remi, then a serving senator, was forced to voice her observation right on the floor of the Senate. She openly accused Buhari of ditching her husband after helping him to win the presidency.

But Buhari’s unprovoked indignation towards his benefactor continued unabated. Credible sources within the ruling APC at the time, observed that Tinubu was not allowed to make input into Buhari’s cabinet picks and other strategic appointments.

Right from his first tenure, a handful of power grabbers within and outside Buhari’s kitchen cabinet, were the ones running the government. They formed a cabal that ran rings around the stubbornly insular ex-president.

Members of the cabal had very little electoral value. They were sufficiently disdainful of Tinubu. They used their domineering influence to keep the Lagos Boy far away from their Aso Villa captive. They created the false impression of holding the joker for Buhari’s re-election in 2019. They started treating Tinubu as an expendable commodity as they kept widening the growing chasm between the Daura born ex-Army General and his political benefactor.

Then EI-Rufai came out in the open. He took upon himself the task of “demystifying” Tinubu by rallying some of the man’s political associates for “insurrection” against their leader. From his base in Kaduna, he became a regular visitor in Lagos, which is the nucleus of Tinubu’s political base in the Southwest. He spared no expense as he openly canvased an end to the era of political godfathers. It was during one of his numerous “missionary journeys” that he asked an incumbent Lagos governor: “When are you going to retire your godfather from politics?” And the then first term governor replied: “Second tenure.” And this was a young man who, against all odds, rode on the godfather’s shoulders to the Lagos government house.

The phrase was a wrap for the godfather’s retirement when the governor gets his anticipated second tenure. He must have forgotten that Tinubu has several pairs of wide ear lobes spread across the state. So the voice note of the governor’s “second tenure” echoed through the walls of Bourdillon. If a governor you installed planned to retire you in his tenure, you can only put him back there at your own peril. That’s how that governor lost a potential re-election ticket in 2019. It was a political death. The man has since taken his seat on the reserve bench, watching events from the sidelines.

But the movie to push Tinubu off the cliff ahead of the 2023 race did not stop. Three other former Southwest governors, who the godfather fought tooth and nail to enthrone in their respective states, joined the fray. With goading by El-Rufai, the former Ekiti governor, Kayode Fayemi, took steps that culminated in challenging Tinubu for the 2023 presidential ticket of the APC. And on the prodding of the Buhari cabal, his Ogun State counterpart, Ibikunke Amosun, also threw his signature skyscraper cap in the ring. Similarly, Yemi Osinbajo, who was vice president to Buhari, also saw in the fray what he thought was an opportunity to upstage Tinubu in the quest for the party’s ticket. Perhaps, the open “rebellion” by the former Osun State governor, Rauf Aregbesola, must have been a blow that hit Tinubu below the belt. Fayemi, Amosun and Osinbajo went about their failed adventures without throwing darts at their estranged political benefactor. From his comfort zone as cabinet minister, the ex Osun governor mounted the rooftop to denigrate his former principal. It must have felt like the thrust of Brutus’ sword in Caesar’s groin. Et tu, Rauf? And this was a man who used to be the godfather’s consigliere. The four “renegade” members of the Tinubu political clan could not handle their individual and collective discomfiture when, against all odds, the man managed to dribble Muhammadu Buhari and his cabal to clinch the APC presidential ticket. The godfather crowned it by beating their ambush to win the presidential election subsequently.

Such character traits in the power politics of the Southwest are well documented by political historians. It happened in the First Republic. It was embraced in the Second Republic. It played out in the short lived Third Republic. In those three previous republics, power brokers in the North had forged alliances with overtly ambitious associates in the Southwest for the purposes of pulling down their powerful political leaders. As it was in 1963-1966, so it was in 1979-1983. Circa 1993 (June 12 annulment). It spilled over to the Fourth Republic, 1999 -2023 and still counting. The trend won’t stop with Tinubu. It will continue after him because politicians are a product of ambitions; moderate or inordinate. So the gentlemen who tested their strength with Tinubu for the APC’s 2023 presidential ticket, did not commit any crime.

El-Rufai’s Hidden Agenda

It must be stated clearly that El-Rufai bore no personal animosity towards Tinubu when he set out to instigate the Jagaban’s loyalists against their leader. The ex-Kaduna only played on the moderate or inordinate ambitions of a few of them for his own political gains. It was a long distance race towards 2023.

He knew of Tinubu’s burning desire to succeed Buhari. And he was smart enough to know that another northerner should not be president after Buhari’s eight years in the saddle. The plan was that El-Rufai wanted to be a running mate on the 2023 presidential ticket of the APC. He had figured it all out; that the party would not contemplate a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket. He had reasoned that being a Muslim, there was no way he could be on the same ticket with Tinubu who is a fellow Muslim. So for him to be on the 2023 ticket, the presidential candidate must be a Christian from the south, preferably from the Southwest. That was why he zeroed in on Fayemi. He was working towards having the ex-Ekiti governor or any other southern Christian as presidential candidate, with him as running mate to balance the religious equation. He must have based his permutations on the 2015 experience when the APC flatly rejected the idea of having another Muslim as Buhari’s running mate. So in his own calculation, he had reasoned that with Tinubu as the presidential candidate in 2023, he stood no chance of picking the vice presidential ticket. He had imagined the party would pick a northern Christian as Tinubu’s running mate, a choice that would automatically shut him out. But contrary to his calculations, Tinubu picked Kashim Shettima, a fellow Muslim as his running mate.

Candidate Buhari of 2015 and candidate Tinubu of 2023 presented two different scenarios. The two leaders are poles apart in terms of their public perception. The former president arrogantly wears his Islamic fundamentalist emblem like a badge of honour. Tinubu on the other hand, maintains a visage of a liberal Muslim with a pastor wife, and, perhaps a mix of Muslim and Christian among his children. In the Buhari case, a Muslim-Muslim ticket would have proved an electoral disaster for the APC. That ticket was redeemed with “Pastor” Osinbajo’s name on the ballot. It attenuated what the community of Christian voters would have perceived as “an extremist ticket.”

From 2015 when El-Rufai started playing Saul of Tarsus, up to the build up to the 2023 electioneering, Tinubu’s trust in the ex-Kaduna governor had grown as big as the mustard seed. It didn’t require any deep intuition for the president to see through El-Rufai’s half-hearted “on the road to Damascus” experience.

But Tinubu managed to play safe by summoning enough native wisdom in his relationship with El-Rufai when he was seeking the presidential ticket, and during the campaigns. He had observed how the then Kaduna governor switched allegiances from one presidential aspirant to another. He switched over to Tinubu when it was obvious that many of his fellow northern governors had settled for the former Lagos governor. Tinubu craftily wormed his way into El-Rufai’s heart by cajoling him and massaging his oversize ego. At his campaign stop in Kaduna, candidate Tinubu had “begged” El-Rufai not to leave Nigeria after his tenure because he would need his services for his administration to succeed. That was how a dead cat was sold and bought. Dealing with a complex character like El-Rufai required a great deal of wisdom…and gumption too.
Tinubu’s approach in disarming El-Rufai may find expression in a number of Yoruba proverbs:
Eni ma mu obo, a se bi obo. (If you want to catch a monkey, you must learn to act like a monkey). Adete o le fun wara, sugbon o le da wara nu. (A leper may not be helpful in milking a cow, but he can waste a whole bucket of milk if provoked). Bi owo eni o ba ti te eku ida, a ki bere iku to pa baba eni. (You don’t threaten to avenge your father’s unnatural death if you are holding a contested sword by the blade). Tinubu did not court El-Rufai for his electoral value. He only stooped to conquer. It was a wrong time for dissent within his party at that critical period. He could ill afford it. Even at that, he lost the majority votes in Kaduna State to Atiku Abubakar and his PDP. With the 2023 presidential election won and lost, El-Rufai spent considerable time drooling over the president-elect in the hope of securing a place in the emerging cabinet.

Tinubu’s Pound Of Flesh

Tinubu sent El-Rufai on a fool’s errand by adding his name to the list of ministerial nominees he forwarded to the Senate for screening and confirmation. Unconfirmed reports at the time, suggested that he was being considered as potential power minister. And before anyone could say Godwin Emefiele, El-Rufai had scurried to the Senate wing of the National Assembly, awaiting his turn in the screening exercise. The news hit him like thunderbolt; his screening had been put in abeyance on account of an unfavourable “security report.” The ex-Kaduna governor did not need a soothsayer to tell him that the “security report” comes in flesh and blood. Tinubu simply took his pound of flesh from El-Rufai by humbling him in the full glare of the public. The godfather never forgets. El-Rufai was caught off guard. He bleated. He brayed. He was dazed. It was a humiliating experience. He got hit by a ricochet from a bullet he had fired at the godfather.
El-Rufai had claimed that Tinubu’s role in Buhari’s 2015 electoral victory was exaggerated. But this same Buhari failed in three previous attempts. Did he mean to say that without Tinubu, Buhari would have won in the Southwest where he was rejected in three consecutive election circles? If he still insists that Tinubu’s role in Buhari’s election was exaggerated, then how would he rate his own contribution to Tinubu’s victory in 2023? Tinubu won 29.4 percent votes in El-Rufai’s Kaduna while Atiku won 40.8 percent. Check the records.
The long and short of the story, is that Jagaban outsmarted his opponent in a political chess game. It’s coup and counter coup. Tit for tat. And today, the godfather El-Rufai plotted to retire from politics, is now holding the sword by the hilt. What a thing about politics. In frustration, he dumped the APC for the Labour Party a few days ago. El-Rufai’s cat has undergone sphynx mutation. It is in desperate need of covering to shield its furless skin from the vagaries of the elements. May Shehu Sani’s wish for him never prevail.

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Legends lost! An era closes! A nation mourns!

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By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

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The passing of Chief Ayo Adebanjo, a renowned elder statesman and Afenifere chieftain, and the breaking news about Chief Edwin Clark, mark the end of an era.

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Focusing primarily on Adebanjo, he represented, very much like Clark, the spirit of emancipation, which arose out of the earlier stages of the agitation for an end to the colonial incursion in Africa. Indeed, Clark was actually, as a student at Holborn College of Law in London, an active member of the West African Students’ Union (WASU). Between 1952 and 1965, he was also a member of the Honourable Society of Inner Temple, London.

WASU is of great significance, for it triggered off the current of thinking, based on the progressive philosophical base, not just for dismantling colonialism but for presenting a programme of action to guide the post-colonial state. The position of WASU affected the thinking of movements such as the Action Group (AG) in Nigeria and the Convention People’s Party (CPP) in Ghana, amongst others.

Indeed, the manifesto pledge of the AG, to ‘make life more abundant’, is aligned with WASU’s affiliation with the ground-breaking manifesto of the Labour Party in 1945, ‘Let us face the future’, which has stood as the most important manifesto ever issued. Significantly, it was the AG manifesto in 1951 which persuaded Adebanjo to switch from the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) to AG. The late sage obviously felt that AG’s manifesto was in alignment with his own political philosophy.

By the time the foremost nationalist switched to AG, the NCNC had undergone a significant shift in its ideology. Following the death of Herbert Macaulay, the party abandoned its initial stance on a federalist post-colonial state and adopted a highly centralized ‘unification’ position. This drastic change had far-reaching consequences, leading to disastrous effects that still plague the country today.

Adebanjo’s shift in allegiance revealed the politics of an era which was based on philosophical ideas and ideological thrusts. This is in marked contradistinction to today’s trend of ‘decamping’ for purely personal advancement and pecuniary benefits. He remained steadfast in his progressive beliefs from his early 20s until his passing at 96. This is why an era has passed, and the passing of that era should be treated with deep regret. The highly respected Nigerian did not shift from his ideological position, through tribulations, setbacks and defeats, including the prospect of going to jail.

During the 1962 treasonable felony trial, Adebanjo faced a choice: abandon his principles and gain a lucrative appointment by testifying for the prosecution, or stand firm. He chose the latter! Today, the political atmosphere is in direct contrast to the faithfulness exhibited by the Isanya Ogbo, Ijebu Ode-born leader and the nation is financially and morally poorer for it. Nigeria is today mired in the ’development of the underdevelopment’, underachievement and an alarming slide into the fringes in the world pecking order.

In my January 6, 2009 article, ‘Afenifere: Once upon an identity’, I wrote that many Yorubas believed the once-revered body had become extinct, with its relevance dying even before the passing of notable figures like Bola Ige and Abraham Adesanya. Fast-forward to today, and the question remains: how relevant is Afenifere in the face of widespread crises, including security concerns and rampant unemployment in the Southwest?

If a country’s politics is not ideologically driven, there are always consequences. In other words, if Nigeria had continued to produce people who believed in the ideological current and stayed faithful, the country could have lived to be at par with Brazil, which is the world’s 10th largest economy; if not, with India, which is the 5th largest.

Instructively, there was a clear ideological mandate of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that, in his first coming, that translated into practice moved forty million Brazilians out of poverty and built one million housing units annually for eight years. Nigeria could have achieved similar progress, and more, if it had continued to create the atmosphere that produced Ayo Adebanjo and people like him, such as Edwin Clark.

Speaking generally, Nigeria’s biggest problem is the attitude of its leaders and the popular. Imagine the plight of the average citizen! As fate would have it, Nigeria now has one of the highest poverty rates in the world, with significant spatial and socio-economic inequalities, exacerbating social unrest and instability. The living standards are going down, and there’s mass unemployment, with large trade deficits and dependence on oil exports not only resulting in economic stagnation but also hindering development. Here, corruption is a fair game.
Bribery is also a fair game. The trouble is that either is a seed; once it is sown, it will surely germinate,
then bear fruit. After that comes the harvest season.

The reality is unambiguous: many families survive on less than N5,000 per week, while the minimum wage barely covers the cost of a bag of rice. Soaring gasoline prices, inadequate education, healthcare and nutrition have all contributed to a vicious cycle of poverty and underdevelopment. To make matters worse, the inflation rate has skyrocketed to an all-time high, exacerbating the country’s economic challenges; and it is as if the gods are angry!

With these pressing issues staring us in the face, what concrete solutions is Afenifere proposing, and how is it engaging with organizations like the Development Agenda for Western Nigeria (DAWN) to address these challenges? Furthermore, as Afenifere’s stance seems to swing and swerve depending on the whims of its leaders, is the organization presenting solid position papers and working collaboratively with others to drive meaningful
change? The fall of giants like Ayo Adebanjo serves as a poignant reminder that the baton of leadership must be
passed to a new generation of Nigerians who are equally committed to the ideals of democracy, social justice, and federalism. In saner societies, Afenifere is supposed to have evolved into a research institute powerhouse for Southwest Nigeria, proffering ironclad solutions to state and local governments on education, internal security, food security and health challenges. But is in doing that?

How many people relate to Afenifere these days, apart from a tiny segment of the elite? Again, if one may ask, what’s the continued relevance of Afenifere? Its influence has waned, and its connection to the average person, particularly outside the elite circle, is tenuous at best. If you talk to somebody in Ijebu-Jesa, my Native Nazareth, what is his concern with Afenifere? Does he know what it stands for? With the last of the titans finding their way to their Creator, will Afenifere still be relevant in decades to come?

Adebanjo was once here! Now, he belongs in history! He has done his bit and he has left the stage. He fought tirelessly for his principles, unyielding in the face of adversity, and uncompromising in his pursuit of a more just and equitable society. His legacy, now forever entwined with the fabric of Afenifere, stands as an inspiration, illuminating the enduring importance of equity, good governance and social justice – timeless ideals that transcend the boundaries of mortality.

Adebanjo’s passing represents what we have lost and what might have been. The lesson from the passing of people like him should be taught in schools and documentary dramas made about their lives in order to instruct, guide and guard. Perhaps, it’d still be possible to rekindle that era!

May the beautiful souls of Chief Ayo Adebanjo and Chief Edwin Clark find rest in the bosom of their
Creator!

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

*KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria ( ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk )

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