Opinion
Twitter Ban: Evading the Law of Unintended Consequences with Systems Thinking
By John Obidi
I woke up this morning to see that Twitter was trending with multiple terms related to the state of affairs in Nigeria.
I found this rather odd and here’s why.
I use Twitter more as a listening tool, to keep my finger on the pulse of things.
One look at the trending topics, and you could have a summary of current affairs for the day.
When I left Nigeria last year, I updated my location on the Twitter app to ‘United States’ as I now wished to be updated on current affairs in the US.
Consequently, whenever something significant happened in Nigeria, I learned of it rather late and typically by word of mouth because I could only see US trends.
And so when I woke up this morning to multiple Nigerian terms on the trending section, I thought the app was experiencing a glitch, showing me trending topics in my former location, Nigeria.
After a few seconds, I laughed as I realised what the real situation was. There was no glitch after all.
Here’s the breakdown of what happened.
Whenever something tragic or contentious occurred in Nigeria, the citizens would tweet about it, and the topic would trend – TO NIGERIANS.
This meant that even though the complaints and agitations of the citizens were being posted to the public social media platform, the issues seldom ever registered as the trending topics of other countries.
However, there was a twist here which leads us to the Law of Unintended Consequences.
The Nigerian Government banned twitter and this led the mammoth Nigerian youth population to download VPNs to bypass the ban.
On most VPNs, the United States is the default or preferred location.
And so millions of Nigerians who would normally tweet and register their discontent as the trending topics of Nigeria, were now registering the issues on the trend list of the United States.
Americans woke up today confused by terms such as ‘IPOB’, ‘Buhari’ and ‘Malami’.
If the Nigerian government had not banned Twitter, the displeasure of Nigerians would have been localised.
In the wake of the ban, the displeasure of Nigerians was being broadcast to the center of the world through VPNs, creating global awareness for a matter that would have otherwise remained local.
Most Nigerian VPN users didn’t plan for this effect. It was just an unintended consequence of using VPNs, albeit a welcome one.
Another unintended consequence here is that Nigerians may have now learned how to ensure that topics of agitation are registered on the trends lists of the United States – by mobilizing Nigerians to tweet via VPNs with the US as their virtual location.
The Law of Unintended Consequences can be avoided by utilizing a thinking tool called Second Order Thinking.
Second Order Thinking posits that there is more than meets the eye when solving problems, and that by solving one problem, we may inadvertently create another problem.
We must therefore rigorously apply Second Order Thinking and even third order thinking in order to arrive at an ecological solution.
I’ll explain this using another lesson from history.
Back when the British ruled India, they faced a problem with a rising population of venomous cobras in Delhi.
To solve this problem, the British colonialists launched a bounty program, offering a cash prize for every cobra that was killed.
All the residents had to do, was to kill a cobra and present its body to the British government and claim the reward.
However, the business-minded Indians devised a plan to ‘optimise’ their rewards – they would breed cobras privately, kill them, present the dead cobras to the British and collect the cash reward.
The British were initially delighted to see that cobras were being killed in large numbers.
On the surface, the bounty program appeared to be a raving success – 1ST ORDER THINKING.
The British soon found out about the breeding operations and terminated the bounty program – 2ND ORDER EFFECTS.
This now meant that the Indian snake breeders were left with many snakes that could not be sold, and so they set them all free.
There were now more cobras all over Delhi after the bounty program than when it was first started – 3RD ORDER EFFECTS.
What does this mean for you?
As with the stories of the Twitter ban and the British bounty program, we must seek to solve problems by seeing the whole landscape rather than what is readily apparent.
We must consider not only the First Order Effects of our decisions, but also their Second and even Third Order Effects.
This overarching strategy is called SYSTEMS THINKING, and Second Order thinking is just one component of it.
Let’s look at another hypothetical application of this powerful thinking tool.
Say you were the Founder/CEO of a Billion Dollar corporation and one of your founding executives was found to be engaged in fraudulent activity.
What would you do?
Well, a First Order approach to this problem would be to simply fire this individual.
Second Order thinking would examine any potential consequences of dismissing this person.
On further investigation, you may then realize that this person may choose to express their disgruntlement by joining a competing organization and use company secrets to strengthen your opposition.
Of course you could go to court, but your lawyers graduated from Harvard Law and would charge millions of dollars to duel with your adversary over the coming months and years.
Considering the cost of the Second Order effects of a straight dismissal, you may wish to act ignorant of the act of fraud and do something else instead.
Create a small office in a far away country which is inconsequential to overall brand image and profitability.
Puff up his ego by offering him the role of Country Manager or ‘General Manager – Diaspora Relations’.
This fraudster would feel valued and stay on your side, while being tactically stripped of the ability to continually perpetrate fraud.
You solved the First Order problem of fraud, canceled out the chances of future fraud and potentially saved the company millions of dollars in legal fees.
This strategy is used at the highest levels of power – across politics, the mafia, business and even organized religion.
Read this a couple of times over and make your notes on how this can offer solutions past and future obstacles in your life.
As Solomon famously wrote, “For wisdom is a defence, and money is a defence: but the excellency of knowledge is, that wisdom giveth life to them that have it.”
John Obidi is a Public Affairs Analyst and lives in the United States of America
By Adamu Muhd Usman.
“If you can think of it, you can plan it; if you can plan it, you can dream it; if you can dream it, you can achieve it.”
—Unknown author
Farming and livestock are Jigawa’s main occupations. The Jigawa people and its government are always interested in farming. So talking about farming, farmers, commodities and livestock prices are interesting issues for Jigawa people.
The prices of cash crops, grains, etc., are recording a steady drop in Jigawa State occasioned by the yearning and interest of the people of the state and also some state government commitment for both farming of animals and farm produce.
A check and investigations by yours sincerely showed and proved that the prices of many things had dropped by 20-30 per cent in the last four weeks and thereabouts in Jigawa state.
A 10 kg local rice farm (produced) in Jigawa State was sold at ₦9,000 as against the previous price of almost ₦12,000. Millet, sorghum, beans, wheat, Benny seeds, etc., indicated a similar price decrease.
People are of the opinion that the situation of a high supply of the produce from farms in Jigawa State has committed itself to producing a large quantity of farm produce and livestock to meet the demand in the region or the country at large. Surely, the increase in the supply of the produce from the farms or farmers had forced prices down in the recent past.
Others still attributed this price drop to the fear of Allah instilled in the hearts of hoarders because the clerics kept preaching against hoarding, which is seriously frown upon by God Almighty.
While some political critics viewed it as the bad economic policies of the President Tinubu administration, in which Allah used it to bring relief to the common man.
Quite obviously, Jigawa is amongst the three states in the federation that produce and supply the nation and some neighbouring counties with grains, livestock, fish and frogs. Jigawa state is also first in Hibiscus, sesame, gum Arabic, datefarm and also Jigawa is not left behind in the farming of cotton and Siemens. —-Jigawa is blessed.
But at the overround investigations, findings and outcomes, it was largely concluded that all these results and achievements were attributed to the people’s interest and passion for farming, but it is mostly because of the government’s commitments to assist, promote and enhance agricultural production in the state to make it a priority in Jigawa as a means of livelihood, occupation and income for the Jigawa populace and to be a source of internally generated revenue (IGR) for the state and also make the state feed the nation formula. Thank God, the airport (cargo) built by the former governor, Dr Sule Lamido, will now be very functional and useful.
The big question now is, can the state government sustain its support for the agricultural sector and continue to pay more attention and also sustain the package and gesture?
We hope that farmers in the state will continue to enjoy maximum support in crop production, including the use of mechanised farming. This will encourage livestock farming, which will go a long way to reduce or stop farmers’/herders’ clashes.
Also, the issue of soil erosion should be given due attention, and more roads should be constructed across the state in order to facilitate bringing out farm produce from villages and rural areas to urban areas.
As the saying goes, Success is getting what you want, and happiness is wanting what you get.
Adamu writes from Kafin-Hausa, Jigawa State.
By Abiodun KOMOLAFE
The concepts of power, privilege and governance are complex and multifaceted. Power refers to the ability to influence others, while privilege denotes unearned advantages.
Governance encompasses institutions, structures and processes that regulate these dynamics. Together, these concepts raise fundamental questions about justice, equality and resource distribution.
It emphasizes the importance of considering marginalized groups’ experiences and perspectives. The main problem in Nigeria today is its political economy, which is rooted in rent-seeking and fosters a mindset that prioritizes patronage over production.
The country’s politics are characterized by a patron-client relationship, where everything revolves around government handouts rather than effective governance. This has led to a situation where “politics” in Nigeria is essentially a scramble for resources in a country with severely limited opportunities for self-improvement.
When French agronomist René Dumont wrote ‘False Starts in Africa’ in 1962, he inadvertently described Nigeria’s current state in 2025. Nigeria’s missteps have magnified themselves in the theatre of the absurd, such as the construction of a new vice presidential residence and Governor Chukwuemeka Soludo’s boasts about the lavish official residence for the governor of Anambra State, currently under construction.
It is to be noted in contradistinction that the newly sworn-in Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, is looking for somewhere to live. The official residence of the prime minister, 24 Sussex Drive, the Canadian equivalent of 10 Downing Street, is in disrepair and uninhabitable. No Canadian government can dare ask the parliament to appropriate the $40m needed to refurbish the residence.
Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeds $2 trillion, while Nigeria’s GDP is less than $400 billion. Still, Nigeria claims to be a giant! With an electricity generation capacity of less than 6,000 megawatts, Nigeria’s proclamation seems absurd, especially when compared to cities like Johannesburg, Singapore, Hong Kong and Mumbai. Even Lagos State alone should be generating, transmitting and distributing at least 15,000 megawatts, which would be a basic expectation rather than an achievement.
Nigeria today needs a comprehensive overhaul of its governance crisis to build a new political economy and social services that are fit for purpose. Although the government is on the right path in some ways, a root-and-branch transformation is still necessary.
A notable breakthrough is the decision to recapitalize development finance institutions, such as the Bank of Industry and, crucially, the Bank of Agriculture. This move is significant in a rent-seeking state, as it addresses the need for long-term capital – a prerequisite for achieving meaningful progress.
The development finance institutions require annual recapitalization of at least N500 billion, ideally N1 trillion. Achieving this necessitates a thorough cost evaluation of the government’s machinery, starting with the full implementation of the Oronsaye Committee’s recommendations.
The resulting cost savings can then be redirected to development finance institutions and essential social services like primary healthcare. Furthermore, the government should be bolder, if it can afford to be so, especially since there’s no discernible opposition on offer At the moment, the Nigerian political establishment across the board appears to be enamored by the position put forward by the leader of the Russian revolution, Vladimir Lenin, after the failed putsch. Lenin wrote the classic, ‘What is to be done?’
His observation is that revolutions do not take place at times of grinding poverty. They do so during periods of relatively rising prosperity. Significant sections of the Nigerian establishment believe that relatively rising prosperity could trigger off social discontent.
In their own interest, they had better be right. The caveat is that Lenin wrote ‘What’s to be Done’ in 1905. The world has moved on and changed since the conditions that led to the failure of the attempted takeover of government in Russia in 1905. Therefore, the Nigerian political establishment, for reasons of self-preservation, had better put on its thinking cap. Addressing power and privilege in governance requires collective action, institutional reforms and a commitment to promoting social justice. Nigeria currently lacks a leadership recruitment process, which can only be established if political parties are willing to develop a cadre. Unfortunately, the country is dealing with Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) instead. It’s rare to find leadership in Nigeria operating political boot camps to recruit and groom youths for future leadership roles.
This might be why many young people have a misguided understanding of politics, viewing it as merely a means of sharing the nation’s commonwealth. Mhairi Black was elected to the British House of Commons at 20 years old.
However, the key point is that Black had started becoming involved in politics at a young age. By the time she was elected, she had already gained significant experience, effectively becoming a veteran in the field. In Nigeria, politics is often seen as one of the few avenues for self-fulfillment. However, the economy is stagnant, with few jobs created in the public sector and limited investment opportunities.
This is a far cry from the 1950s and 1960s, when political parties were more substantial. Today, it’s worth asking how many Nigerian political parties have functional Research Departments. Besides, what socialization into any philosophy or ideology do our politicians have? Similarly to former Governor Rotimi Amaechi, many of those who currently hold power are motivated to stay in politics due to concerns about economic stability.
Of course, that’s why the Lagos State House of Assembly has had to revert itself. It is the same challenge that has reduced the traditional institution to victims of Nigeria’s ever-changing political temperature. It is the reason an Ogbomoso indigene is not interested in what happened between Obafemi Awolowo and Ladoke Akintola.
It is also the reason an Ijebuman sees an Ogbomoso man as his enemy without bothering to dig up the bitter politics that ultimately succeeded in putting the two families on the path of permanent acrimony. Of course, that’s why we have crises all over the place! May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!
KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk; 08033614419)
Byabiodun KOMOLAFE
Rivers State is now under emergency rule, and it’s likely to remain so for the next six months, unless a drastic change occurs.
If not managed carefully, this could mark the beginning of a prolonged crisis.
In situations like this, opinions tend to be divergent. For instance, some people hold the notion that the security situation and the need to protect the law and public order justified President Bola Tinubu’s proclamation of a state of emergency in, and the appointment of a sole administrator for Rivers State.
However, others view this act as ‘unconstitutional’, ‘reckless’, ‘an affront on democracy’, and ‘a political tool to intimidate the opposition’. When we criticize governments for unmet expectations, we often rely on our own perspectives and biases.
Our individual identities and prejudices shape our criticism. However, it’s essential to recognize that not all criticism is equal. Protesting within the law is fundamentally different from protests that descend into illegality. Once illegality creeps in, the legitimacy of the protest is lost.
As John Donne wrote in ‘Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions’, “Never send to know for whom the bell tolls.” A protest is legitimate when it aligns with societal norms, values and laws. But when protests are marred by violence or sabotage, they lose credibility. Without credibility, protests become ineffective.
Regarding the validity or otherwise of the emergency rule in Rivers State, it is imperative that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors approach the Supreme Court immediately. They should seek a definitive clarification on whether the proclamation is ultra vires or constitutional.
For whatever it’s worth, they owe Nigerians that responsibility!May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!
Abiodun KOMOLAFE,ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk; 08033614419 – SMS only.
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