Opinion
Russian army has run out of time

This first phase of the war is over. Russian forces will have to regroup and find a different strategy

The Russian campaign in Ukraine may have reached its culminating point. In short, Russian forces may no longer be able to achieve their strategic objective by offensive operations. If so, it would mark a turning point.

It would not, however, mean the war is over, or that Ukraine has achieved victory. An effective stalemate might see the war entering an even more devastating phase, with Russian forces digging in and switching from wide-scale ground attack to besieging, bombarding and starving the major cities, while reinforcing and preparing for a renewed offensive.
Indications that Vladimir Putin may believe his campaign has culminated include a new defensive effort to interdict combat supplies and troops being pushed into the fight. In recent days we have seen attacks in the west against logistics bases, airfields and concentration centres for foreign volunteers. Cyber attacks – already widely used inside Ukraine – may now be extended to Nato countries to deter and disrupt supply of munitions and intelligence.
Putin may also plan to deploy chemical weapons to break the deadlock; President Biden warned of this yesterday. Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria, over which Putin presided, caused devastating physical and psychological effects that proved decisive.
Reaching a strategic culminating point does not mean Russia cannot continue local tactical manoeuvre. Russian air operations, surprisingly limited so far given their massive superiority, have been intensifying in recent days. Russia will continue to tie down Ukrainian forces, including by threatening amphibious assault against Odessa and feints towards Kyiv.
We will see continued efforts to seize Mariupol, a vital objective for Putin, completing his land corridor between annexed Crimea and the Russian border. Gaining Mariupol would be a major element of his claim of victory should the conflict end with some form of peace deal.
Entering a stage of consolidation and siege warfare is not without hazard for Russia, with Ukrainian hit and run attacks and local counter attacks against their logistic chains. Defending against such actions, which have already proved successful, will tie down large numbers of troops.
As sanctions continue to bite, sustaining even a stalemated campaign will be increasingly difficult for Russia. The West must continue to pressure China against stepping into the breach with finance and munitions. Despite Putin’s efforts at intimidation, including nuclear threats, it is essential that Nato escalates its financial and military support so that Ukrainian forces can inflict maximum damage against Russia to give Volodymyr Zelensky the greatest possible leverage in any negotiations and also to deter Putin from future aggression.
Paradoxically, Zelensky’s best course of action now might be to draw the Russian army beyond its culminating point, luring it into street fighting in the cities where defending forces can inflict disproportionate attrition against the attackers. Russia is adept at hammer-blow destruction using artillery and air strikes but incompetent in ground tactics, and such a move could be less damaging for Ukraine than suffering months of stand-off bombardment. For Russia, attacking beyond its culminating point risks over-extension, counter-attack and – ultimately – defeat.
Colonel Richard Kemp is a former infantry commander and chairman of the Cobra Intelligence Group

Opinion
Spiritual Sabotage: Unmasking the merchant of Ayija and Co.’s betrayal in Igala’s political downfall

By Inah Boniface Ocholi

The chronicles of betrayal wear many garbs, but this one was embroidered with familiarity, stitched by hands that once swore allegiance to the Igala dream. Let the records be unsealed: it was not the hand of fate, nor the wiles of adversaries, nor the restive sleep of ancestors that shattered the Igala throne—it was the deliberate orchestration of sons who auctioned their own heritage beneath the dim lanterns of political expedience.

The merchant’s name requires neither chanting nor applause. He is known in hushed tones as the Merchant of Ayija—a man whose political gallop seemed messianic, yet whose actual mission, when unraveled, reeked of betrayal more pungent than market-day deceit. The Igala Nation, once girded with ancestral dignity and political relevance, now limps through history, clinging to fractured loyalties and perfidious smiles.
Lugard House, once a reachable dream, has become a haunted citadel—its gates slammed shut, not by strangers, but by brothers. How did the East, cradle of intellectual warriors and seasoned statesmen, come to this? The answer, bitter as unripe locust beans, lies in the silent handshakes, the coded meetings, the hushed transfers. Not in 2023 did this tragedy begin—it gestated in the womb of ambition long before.
The late Prince Abubakar Audu, may his name be honoured, in an attempt to preserve political purity, demoted Dr. Yakubu Ugwolawo. A decision that, though calculated, unleashed a storm of vengeance. Dr. Ugwolawo, wounded but unyielding, allegedly delivered over 400 delegate votes to Yahaya Bello. The deed was subtle, but its consequence seismic. Bello, initially a distant runner-up, became the recipient of destiny manipulated—not earned.
Then Prince Audu departed. In his passing, the East lost more than a candidate—it lost its compass. A shadow deal inked by the late James Ocholi with Alhaji Bello—promising a return of power to the East post-2015—faded into political myth. Bello, having been gifted the throne, became its unrepentant custodian. And the Igala dream? It dissolved like salt in the monsoon.
In 2019, heroes arose. Late Prof. Sheidu Ogah. Vice Admiral Usman Jibrin. General Patrick Akpa. Titans, armed not with tribal arrogance, but with national intellect. All disqualified. Not by incompetence, but by orchestration. It was not the enemy outside, but the saboteur within.
It was then the Merchant of Ayija emerged, cloaked in populism but carrying the ledger of betrayal. For a reported N3.5 billion, the future was battered. The Merchant and his cohort—Edward Onoja, the greenhorn deputymarshalled Igala votes not for emancipation but for Bello’s second term. “Ene Omu ne Me,” they chorused, mocking unity, vandalizing the sacred.
This was not mere politicking—it was a metaphysical violation. A desecration of the ancestral altar. Political incest garbed in progressive rhetoric.
By 2023, the masquerade wore thin. The Merchant, now parading as redeemer, returned to the people he once betrayed. But the masquerade’s footsteps echoed with dishonesty. The third term he denied orchestrating was written all over his campaign script. INEC’s rejection was only ceremonial—the heavens had already withdrawn their endorsement. As one elder mused, “Rejection followed—not from the courts, but from the courts of divine justice.”
It wasn’t just a failed campaign—it was divine judgment. The East fell, not because the centre was not strong, but because its limbs were disjointed, its heart unfaithful. We erected thrones for traitors and hurled stones at patriots. And now, the altar is cracked, and the rain refuses to fall.
But not all is lost. Amid the ruins, a whisper rises—a movement of remembrance, of reckoning. A convocation must be called, not of politicians in flowing gowns, but of elders with cracked voices, youths with flaming consciences, clergy bearing scrolls of truth. There must be a national inquest, a tribal confession. Not to shame, but to cleanse. Not to revenge, but to restore.
The Igala Nation must admit: it is not enemies who buried our crown—it was our sons. And if the sons will not confess, the land will groan till the trees refuse to fruit.
Let the Merchant of Ayija know: the people now read between the lines. The masquerade’s feet have betrayed him. The ghost of 2015 is no longer silent. And those who shared the wine of betrayal will soon taste the dregs of accountability.
We require not political gladiators, but spiritual reformers. Men and women who understand that political destiny is sacred, that betrayal is not strategy but sacrilege. The land bleeds. The ancestors mutter. And history stands with ink-stained fingers, waiting to inscribe either our redemption or our ruin.
The time for palliative speeches is gone. What we need is truth, poured like libation. Let the calabash breakers come forward. Let the silence keepers speak. Let the elders who watched in complicity find the courage to confess. Only then shall the rain fall again. Only then shall the East rise—not on borrowed legs, but on ancestral strength.
As Dr. Paul Enenche once thundered, “When truth is buried, destiny is delayed. When truth is denied, destruction is near. But when truth is declared, restoration begins.” The Igala Nation stands at that forked path—between the ruins of betrayal and the road to rebirth.
Let those with ears, hear. Let the betrayers bow. Let truth march through Bassa, Idah, Dekina, and Ankpa. For it is truth—not politics—that shall save the land.
Inah Boniface Ocholi – Writes from Ayah, Igalamela/Odolu, LGA, Kogi State.
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Opinion
Nigeria and the part of our past (1)

By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

On October 1, 1999, I wrote an article titled ‘The Ethical Imperative of Governance’ in one of Nigeria’s leading national newspapers.

In the said article, I advocated for a deep sense of objective right and wrong in society, one that transcended Nigeria’s multicultural identity, as this shared moral foundation was essential for achieving our national objectives. Fast-forward to 2025, nearly three decades later, and the question remains: has anything changed? If so, what exactly has changed, and how do we measure the extent of this transformation?
In fairness to posterity, to ask how we got to wherever we are is to ask whether or not Nigeria should have been created in the first place. The amalgamation of the protectorates and territories, after all, was not put to a referendum, and there is no record of the people giving their consent to this amalgamation. It was largely driven by the British government’s cost-cutting measures, undertaken amidst the turmoil of a Europe on the brink of World War I.
The 1911 report of the Committee headed by Lord Haldane, akin to Nigeria’s Oronsaye Report, paved the way for cost rationalization, ultimately leading to the amalgamation. However, a critical question remains: did this amalgamation truly create a country, or merely a geographical expression? This conundrum is reminiscent of Giuseppe Garibaldi’s unification of 27 principalities, states and provinces into Italy. As Garibaldi excellently remarked, “We have created a geographical expression; now we must create the Italians.”
General Yakubu ‘Jack’ Gowon is arguably the only Nigerian leader who has come close to addressing the question of national unity. One of his notable achievements was the creation of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) in 1974.
While the NYSC has unified the Nigerian elite to some extent, its impact has been limited, more so as it has largely been serving interests that are not particularly productive. More importantly, it has failed to unite the Nigerian people. This failure is symptomatic of a broader issue – a country built on rent-seeking and a scramble for resources, which inevitably leads to the current state of disarray.
When Nigeria was governed by production-based constitutions, such as the 1963 Constitution, the country experienced flashpoints, but also enjoyed better focus on development and greater national cohesion. A similar trajectory can be observed in India, which has maintained stability despite experiencing flashpoints since its independence in 1947. India has avoided coups and has become the world’s 5th largest economy. Projections also suggest that India will become the world’s largest economy by 2050.
India’s experience offers a valuable lesson. By adhering to a constitutional framework similar to Nigeria’s 1960 and 1963 Constitutions, the country has successfully lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Meanwhile, Nigeria grapples with communal clashes, violence and land-grabbing. Nigerians are roasting Nigerians, thus rendering the country neither peaceful nor cohesive. This lack of cohesion underscores that sustainable development cannot be achieved through isolated ‘projects’. Instead, it will remain a case of ‘all motion without development.’
The National Assembly’s inability to promptly reform the internal security mechanism, adopting a community and state policing approach akin to countries like Australia, Canada, Brazil, and the USA, is striking. This inaction betrays a lack of interest in fostering national cohesion. Unfortunately, there is little indication that this will change soon. Apart from when the Super Eagles are playing, there is very little evidence of national cohesion. Dear fatherland continues to look like a ‘geographical expression’ rather than a state based on national identity, cohesion and a focused programme for national reconstruction.
In response to Nigeria’s struggles with national identity and underperformance, the establishment should revisit and upgrade the 1963 Republican Constitution, backing it with a referendum as a measure of self-preservation. At this critical juncture, the country must work towards a Nigerian equivalent of Italy’s 1971 ‘Historic Compromise.’
The Italian ‘Compromesso Storico’ breathed new life into Italy’s struggling state, addressing its disoriented public finances and stabilizing its sagging currency. This historic compromise reduced regional tensions and laid the groundwork for a unified effort against the Sicilian Mafia, ultimately paving the way for its downfall.
The conventional wisdom suggests that Lombardy, Italy’s most prosperous region, which, like our Niger Delta, is the goose that lays the golden eggs, would certainly have pulled out of Italy. This prompts a crucial question for Nigeria’s political establishment: can intellectual honesty and moral circumspection guide a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s perennial underdevelopment and lack of national cohesion?
Nigeria transitioned from military rule to democracy, but the journey was far from glorious. With this reality in mind, we must recognize that India’s independence in 1947 marked the beginning of a period where the country’s military structure prevented at least a dozen potential military coups. This contrasts with Nigeria’s experience under military rule, as well as Brazil’s, which was marked by brutality and viciousness.
However, it’s essential to consider the outcomes of military rule, as seen in South Korea’s remarkable transformation since 1958. The question remains: can military rule be beneficial if it leads to a forced advance, as in South Korea’s case?
To be concluded.
KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk)

Opinion
The Uromi 16 and all of us

By Adamu Muhd Usman

“I do not ask for mercy,
I do not ask for pardon,
I demand justice.”
— Ali Bhutto of Palestine

Regardless of tribe, religion, region, culture, norms, status, class, or political affiliation, no one is a second-class citizen as long as they are Nigerian.
The media and public discussions have been dominated by the recent events in Uromi, Edo State, where innocent Nigerians were attacked, killed, and burned. This act is uncalled for—it is purely barbaric, unjust, and inhumane. Such actions demand justice.
Anyone supporting this wicked act must stop trying to justify this inhumanity. No amount of rhetoric, logic, or empty words can erase the pain of those innocent lives lost in Uromi.
The truth is, those who were killed in Uromi were not bandits. They were poor citizens from the North, the same region being targeted by the bandits and kidnappers that Southerners also fear.
The deceased (hunters) had no business with kidnappers or bandits who terrorize Northerners daily. There is ample evidence, both historical and media-based, proving the difference between local hunters and the criminals responsible for kidnappings and killings across Nigeria’s highways, camps, farms, and forests.
It is important to understand that not all Northerners are Hausa or Fulani or even Muslim. Likewise, not all Fulani are cattle herders. Although the Fulani traditionally live in the bush due to their livestock, they are not hunters. Hunting is a core aspect of Hausa culture—many Hausa hunters travel beyond their home territories in search of game.
A typical Hausa man does not rear cattle but raises dogs and fabricates locally made guns for hunting, a practice inherited from his ancestors. On the other hand, the Fulani are not typically farmers. However, throughout history, the Hausa and Fulani have coexisted, exchanging cultural values and traditions.
The insecurity plaguing the South due to kidnappers and bandits is far worse—perhaps 200 times more severe—in the North. This is a crisis the government has failed to address for too long.
It is crucial to note that the daily killings in the North by Boko Haram, bandits, and kidnappers are not being carried out by the Fulani who have lived peacefully among us for centuries. While some individuals among the Fulani and Hausa may have joined banditry, this does not mean the entire ethnic group is responsible.
Banditry and kidnapping, which initially started in the South, have now become criminal enterprises involving people from all backgrounds, regardless of tribe, religion, or region. It is Boko Haram and some bandit groups that deliberately create chaos and instill fear in peaceful communities.
Due to these criminal activities, many Southerners, including those in Edo State, now assume that every Northerner is a bandit or criminal simply because of their language or appearance. Similarly, in the 1980s, Northerners believed that every Bendel man, Benin (present day Edo and Delta states) was an armed robber due to the notorious exploits of Lawrence Anini.
The truth is, bandits spare no one—they attack their neighbors, business partners, in-laws, and even relatives. Whether North or South, we all suffer from insecurity, inflation, and the loss of innocent lives.
Nigeria belongs to all of us. No tribe, clan, ethnicity, or region is superior to another. Justice must be served for the senseless killings in Uromi. Remember, whatever you cannot tolerate, bear, or wish for yourself, do not inflict upon others—whether they are from the Northwest, Northeast, North Central, Southwest, Southeast, or South-South.
Another issue being raised is the comparison between the case of Deborah in Sokoto and the recent Uromi killings. To be honest, these two incidents are entirely different. How can you compare the death of one person to the brutal murder of multiple innocent souls? Deborah knowingly provoked the situation that led to her fate. No one dares to insult Islam without consequences—even in the Western world, people are cautious and respectful of religious sentiments. I urge you to leave Islam and Muslims alone with their beliefs.
My fellow Nigerians, both at home and in the diaspora, should stop supporting jungle justice. I implore you to join in condemning this act. Innocent people were attacked, killed, and burned alive for no reason other than being Hausa or Northerners.
Almost all well-meaning Nigerians have condemned this act. We demand justice for these helpless, innocent victims. The false accusations branding them as kidnappers are deeply disturbing and tragic. Such incidents highlight the need for greater awareness, education, reorientation, and the promotion of tolerance and understanding. Fair hearing and thorough investigations must be carried out, and no individual or group should take the law into their own hands—after all, the police and the courts exist for justice.
Authorities must thoroughly investigate the Uromi incident to bring the perpetrators to justice and implement proper measures to prevent future occurrences. Compensation for the victims’ families is not enough—justice must be served.
The call by Kano State Governor H.E. Kabir Yusuf (Abba Gida-Gida) for the public parading of the culprits is a valid one. It would help verify whether those arrested are indeed the perpetrators and ensure transparency in the process. In the past, there have been allegations of inmates being paraded as criminals, so publicizing the real suspects would ease tensions and prove that the government is taking the right steps.
In light of these issues, why is it that every matter related to Kano is now being politicized or trivialized? The Edo State governor was supposed to travel to Kano to offer condolences to the government and people over the brutal lynching of 16 Kano indigenes in Uromi—a commendable move. However, he was instead diverted to Abuja for a political photo-op with the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau, before proceeding to Kano. This is disappointing. May God help democracy thrive in Nigeria as it should.
Lastly, those calling for Nigeria’s breakup should reconsider. Separation is not the solution to Nigeria’s problems. Instead, we must unite, love, and support one another. Stop the insults, mockery, and division. We must learn patience, tolerance, understanding, faithfulness, honesty, and commitment to making Nigeria better.
We should pray for our country’s unity, peaceful coexistence, mutual understanding, political stability, and positive societal changes.
Remember, Ojukwu tried to divide Nigeria but failed. He is now gone. Gideon Okar attempted it and was in handcuffs within 24 hours—facing a firing squad a month later. Gani Adams and Sunday Igboho tried but fled. Nnamdi Kanu made noise, ran to the UK, and was eventually returned to Nigeria, ending up in Kuje Prison.
The truth is, if anyone were to divide Nigeria, it would be a Northerner—but we won’t, because we believe in unity. The North is educated, wealthy, politically aware, and has the landmass and population to stand alone as a country, but we choose unity, tolerance, and coexistence. Our brothers in the South should stop provoking us.
I leave you with the words of Alexander the Great:
“I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion.”
Adamu writes from Kafin-Hausa, Jigawa State.

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