What many Nigerians may not know, is that President Bola Tinubu and former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, had parted ways long before the 2023 presidential election.
Whatever political relationship that existed between two, hit the hard rocks shortly after Muhammadu Buhari emerged president in the 2015 presidential election. Watchers of the power circle were quick to observe, that Buhari openly displayed his fascination with Tinubu’s strategic moves that paved the way for his emergence as the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Buhari acknowledged the fact that without Tinubu’s mastery of the game, there was no way he could have beaten heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Aminu Tambuwal who contested the APC ticket with him. From beating the presidential primary hurdles, to clinching the APC ticket and capping it with a resounding victory in the 2015 presidential election, Buhari more or less elevated Tinubu to the status of his political god.

At his swearing-in ceremony on May 29, 2015, Buhari could hardly conceal his admiration for Tinubu. He kept pumping the hand of the former Lagos State governor in numerous hand shakes and gave him several pats in the back at every close encounter. It became obvious to the public that Buhari had found a benefactor and political godfather in Tinubu. What with his previous three failed attempts at the presidency in 2003, 2007 and 2011.

However, the camaraderie was short lived. Along the line, Buhari started giving Tinubu the cold shoulder a few months into the first leg of his presidency. And for a man not given to much restraint, Buhari continued to drive a wedge between Tinubu and his presidency. It wasn’t long before the content of a leaked memo to Buhari, authored by El-Rufai, revealed that Tinubu’s contribution to Buhari’s emergence as president was being “exaggerated.”

At that point, Tinubu got to understand why his initial chummy relationship with Buhari suddenly grew tepid. The thinly veiled rejection from the then president kept growing. The one-sided cold war became so pronounced that Tinubu’s wife, Remi, then a serving senator, was forced to voice her observation right on the floor of the Senate. She openly accused Buhari of ditching her husband after helping him to win the presidency.

But Buhari’s unprovoked indignation towards his benefactor continued unabated. Credible sources within the ruling APC at the time, observed that Tinubu was not allowed to make input into Buhari’s cabinet picks and other strategic appointments.

Right from his first tenure, a handful of power grabbers within and outside Buhari’s kitchen cabinet, were the ones running the government. They formed a cabal that ran rings around the stubbornly insular ex-president.

Members of the cabal had very little electoral value. They were sufficiently disdainful of Tinubu. They used their domineering influence to keep the Lagos Boy far away from their Aso Villa captive. They created the false impression of holding the joker for Buhari’s re-election in 2019. They started treating Tinubu as an expendable commodity as they kept widening the growing chasm between the Daura born ex-Army General and his political benefactor.

Then EI-Rufai came out in the open. He took upon himself the task of “demystifying” Tinubu by rallying some of the man’s political associates for “insurrection” against their leader. From his base in Kaduna, he became a regular visitor in Lagos, which is the nucleus of Tinubu’s political base in the Southwest. He spared no expense as he openly canvased an end to the era of political godfathers. It was during one of his numerous “missionary journeys” that he asked an incumbent Lagos governor: “When are you going to retire your godfather from politics?” And the then first term governor replied: “Second tenure.” And this was a young man who, against all odds, rode on the godfather’s shoulders to the Lagos government house.

The phrase was a wrap for the godfather’s retirement when the governor gets his anticipated second tenure. He must have forgotten that Tinubu has several pairs of wide ear lobes spread across the state. So the voice note of the governor’s “second tenure” echoed through the walls of Bourdillon. If a governor you installed planned to retire you in his tenure, you can only put him back there at your own peril. That’s how that governor lost a potential re-election ticket in 2019. It was a political death. The man has since taken his seat on the reserve bench, watching events from the sidelines.

But the movie to push Tinubu off the cliff ahead of the 2023 race did not stop. Three other former Southwest governors, who the godfather fought tooth and nail to enthrone in their respective states, joined the fray. With goading by El-Rufai, the former Ekiti governor, Kayode Fayemi, took steps that culminated in challenging Tinubu for the 2023 presidential ticket of the APC. And on the prodding of the Buhari cabal, his Ogun State counterpart, Ibikunke Amosun, also threw his signature skyscraper cap in the ring. Similarly, Yemi Osinbajo, who was vice president to Buhari, also saw in the fray what he thought was an opportunity to upstage Tinubu in the quest for the party’s ticket. Perhaps, the open “rebellion” by the former Osun State governor, Rauf Aregbesola, must have been a blow that hit Tinubu below the belt. Fayemi, Amosun and Osinbajo went about their failed adventures without throwing darts at their estranged political benefactor. From his comfort zone as cabinet minister, the ex Osun governor mounted the rooftop to denigrate his former principal. It must have felt like the thrust of Brutus’ sword in Caesar’s groin. Et tu, Rauf? And this was a man who used to be the godfather’s consigliere. The four “renegade” members of the Tinubu political clan could not handle their individual and collective discomfiture when, against all odds, the man managed to dribble Muhammadu Buhari and his cabal to clinch the APC presidential ticket. The godfather crowned it by beating their ambush to win the presidential election subsequently.

Such character traits in the power politics of the Southwest are well documented by political historians. It happened in the First Republic. It was embraced in the Second Republic. It played out in the short lived Third Republic. In those three previous republics, power brokers in the North had forged alliances with overtly ambitious associates in the Southwest for the purposes of pulling down their powerful political leaders. As it was in 1963-1966, so it was in 1979-1983. Circa 1993 (June 12 annulment). It spilled over to the Fourth Republic, 1999 -2023 and still counting. The trend won’t stop with Tinubu. It will continue after him because politicians are a product of ambitions; moderate or inordinate. So the gentlemen who tested their strength with Tinubu for the APC’s 2023 presidential ticket, did not commit any crime.

El-Rufai’s Hidden Agenda

It must be stated clearly that El-Rufai bore no personal animosity towards Tinubu when he set out to instigate the Jagaban’s loyalists against their leader. The ex-Kaduna only played on the moderate or inordinate ambitions of a few of them for his own political gains. It was a long distance race towards 2023.

He knew of Tinubu’s burning desire to succeed Buhari. And he was smart enough to know that another northerner should not be president after Buhari’s eight years in the saddle. The plan was that El-Rufai wanted to be a running mate on the 2023 presidential ticket of the APC. He had figured it all out; that the party would not contemplate a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket. He had reasoned that being a Muslim, there was no way he could be on the same ticket with Tinubu who is a fellow Muslim. So for him to be on the 2023 ticket, the presidential candidate must be a Christian from the south, preferably from the Southwest. That was why he zeroed in on Fayemi. He was working towards having the ex-Ekiti governor or any other southern Christian as presidential candidate, with him as running mate to balance the religious equation. He must have based his permutations on the 2015 experience when the APC flatly rejected the idea of having another Muslim as Buhari’s running mate. So in his own calculation, he had reasoned that with Tinubu as the presidential candidate in 2023, he stood no chance of picking the vice presidential ticket. He had imagined the party would pick a northern Christian as Tinubu’s running mate, a choice that would automatically shut him out. But contrary to his calculations, Tinubu picked Kashim Shettima, a fellow Muslim as his running mate.

Candidate Buhari of 2015 and candidate Tinubu of 2023 presented two different scenarios. The two leaders are poles apart in terms of their public perception. The former president arrogantly wears his Islamic fundamentalist emblem like a badge of honour. Tinubu on the other hand, maintains a visage of a liberal Muslim with a pastor wife, and, perhaps a mix of Muslim and Christian among his children. In the Buhari case, a Muslim-Muslim ticket would have proved an electoral disaster for the APC. That ticket was redeemed with “Pastor” Osinbajo’s name on the ballot. It attenuated what the community of Christian voters would have perceived as “an extremist ticket.”

From 2015 when El-Rufai started playing Saul of Tarsus, up to the build up to the 2023 electioneering, Tinubu’s trust in the ex-Kaduna governor had grown as big as the mustard seed. It didn’t require any deep intuition for the president to see through El-Rufai’s half-hearted “on the road to Damascus” experience.

But Tinubu managed to play safe by summoning enough native wisdom in his relationship with El-Rufai when he was seeking the presidential ticket, and during the campaigns. He had observed how the then Kaduna governor switched allegiances from one presidential aspirant to another. He switched over to Tinubu when it was obvious that many of his fellow northern governors had settled for the former Lagos governor. Tinubu craftily wormed his way into El-Rufai’s heart by cajoling him and massaging his oversize ego. At his campaign stop in Kaduna, candidate Tinubu had “begged” El-Rufai not to leave Nigeria after his tenure because he would need his services for his administration to succeed. That was how a dead cat was sold and bought. Dealing with a complex character like El-Rufai required a great deal of wisdom…and gumption too.
Tinubu’s approach in disarming El-Rufai may find expression in a number of Yoruba proverbs:
Eni ma mu obo, a se bi obo. (If you want to catch a monkey, you must learn to act like a monkey). Adete o le fun wara, sugbon o le da wara nu. (A leper may not be helpful in milking a cow, but he can waste a whole bucket of milk if provoked). Bi owo eni o ba ti te eku ida, a ki bere iku to pa baba eni. (You don’t threaten to avenge your father’s unnatural death if you are holding a contested sword by the blade). Tinubu did not court El-Rufai for his electoral value. He only stooped to conquer. It was a wrong time for dissent within his party at that critical period. He could ill afford it. Even at that, he lost the majority votes in Kaduna State to Atiku Abubakar and his PDP. With the 2023 presidential election won and lost, El-Rufai spent considerable time drooling over the president-elect in the hope of securing a place in the emerging cabinet.

Tinubu’s Pound Of Flesh

Tinubu sent El-Rufai on a fool’s errand by adding his name to the list of ministerial nominees he forwarded to the Senate for screening and confirmation. Unconfirmed reports at the time, suggested that he was being considered as potential power minister. And before anyone could say Godwin Emefiele, El-Rufai had scurried to the Senate wing of the National Assembly, awaiting his turn in the screening exercise. The news hit him like thunderbolt; his screening had been put in abeyance on account of an unfavourable “security report.” The ex-Kaduna governor did not need a soothsayer to tell him that the “security report” comes in flesh and blood. Tinubu simply took his pound of flesh from El-Rufai by humbling him in the full glare of the public. The godfather never forgets. El-Rufai was caught off guard. He bleated. He brayed. He was dazed. It was a humiliating experience. He got hit by a ricochet from a bullet he had fired at the godfather.
El-Rufai had claimed that Tinubu’s role in Buhari’s 2015 electoral victory was exaggerated. But this same Buhari failed in three previous attempts. Did he mean to say that without Tinubu, Buhari would have won in the Southwest where he was rejected in three consecutive election circles? If he still insists that Tinubu’s role in Buhari’s election was exaggerated, then how would he rate his own contribution to Tinubu’s victory in 2023? Tinubu won 29.4 percent votes in El-Rufai’s Kaduna while Atiku won 40.8 percent. Check the records.
The long and short of the story, is that Jagaban outsmarted his opponent in a political chess game. It’s coup and counter coup. Tit for tat. And today, the godfather El-Rufai plotted to retire from politics, is now holding the sword by the hilt. What a thing about politics. In frustration, he dumped the APC for the Labour Party a few days ago. El-Rufai’s cat has undergone sphynx mutation. It is in desperate need of covering to shield its furless skin from the vagaries of the elements. May Shehu Sani’s wish for him never prevail.

By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

The passing of Chief Ayo Adebanjo, a renowned elder statesman and Afenifere chieftain, and the breaking news about Chief Edwin Clark, mark the end of an era.

Focusing primarily on Adebanjo, he represented, very much like Clark, the spirit of emancipation, which arose out of the earlier stages of the agitation for an end to the colonial incursion in Africa. Indeed, Clark was actually, as a student at Holborn College of Law in London, an active member of the West African Students’ Union (WASU). Between 1952 and 1965, he was also a member of the Honourable Society of Inner Temple, London.

WASU is of great significance, for it triggered off the current of thinking, based on the progressive philosophical base, not just for dismantling colonialism but for presenting a programme of action to guide the post-colonial state. The position of WASU affected the thinking of movements such as the Action Group (AG) in Nigeria and the Convention People’s Party (CPP) in Ghana, amongst others.

Indeed, the manifesto pledge of the AG, to ‘make life more abundant’, is aligned with WASU’s affiliation with the ground-breaking manifesto of the Labour Party in 1945, ‘Let us face the future’, which has stood as the most important manifesto ever issued. Significantly, it was the AG manifesto in 1951 which persuaded Adebanjo to switch from the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) to AG. The late sage obviously felt that AG’s manifesto was in alignment with his own political philosophy.

By the time the foremost nationalist switched to AG, the NCNC had undergone a significant shift in its ideology. Following the death of Herbert Macaulay, the party abandoned its initial stance on a federalist post-colonial state and adopted a highly centralized ‘unification’ position. This drastic change had far-reaching consequences, leading to disastrous effects that still plague the country today.

Adebanjo’s shift in allegiance revealed the politics of an era which was based on philosophical ideas and ideological thrusts. This is in marked contradistinction to today’s trend of ‘decamping’ for purely personal advancement and pecuniary benefits. He remained steadfast in his progressive beliefs from his early 20s until his passing at 96. This is why an era has passed, and the passing of that era should be treated with deep regret. The highly respected Nigerian did not shift from his ideological position, through tribulations, setbacks and defeats, including the prospect of going to jail.

During the 1962 treasonable felony trial, Adebanjo faced a choice: abandon his principles and gain a lucrative appointment by testifying for the prosecution, or stand firm. He chose the latter! Today, the political atmosphere is in direct contrast to the faithfulness exhibited by the Isanya Ogbo, Ijebu Ode-born leader and the nation is financially and morally poorer for it. Nigeria is today mired in the ’development of the underdevelopment’, underachievement and an alarming slide into the fringes in the world pecking order.

In my January 6, 2009 article, ‘Afenifere: Once upon an identity’, I wrote that many Yorubas believed the once-revered body had become extinct, with its relevance dying even before the passing of notable figures like Bola Ige and Abraham Adesanya. Fast-forward to today, and the question remains: how relevant is Afenifere in the face of widespread crises, including security concerns and rampant unemployment in the Southwest?

If a country’s politics is not ideologically driven, there are always consequences. In other words, if Nigeria had continued to produce people who believed in the ideological current and stayed faithful, the country could have lived to be at par with Brazil, which is the world’s 10th largest economy; if not, with India, which is the 5th largest.

Instructively, there was a clear ideological mandate of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that, in his first coming, that translated into practice moved forty million Brazilians out of poverty and built one million housing units annually for eight years. Nigeria could have achieved similar progress, and more, if it had continued to create the atmosphere that produced Ayo Adebanjo and people like him, such as Edwin Clark.

Speaking generally, Nigeria’s biggest problem is the attitude of its leaders and the popular. Imagine the plight of the average citizen! As fate would have it, Nigeria now has one of the highest poverty rates in the world, with significant spatial and socio-economic inequalities, exacerbating social unrest and instability. The living standards are going down, and there’s mass unemployment, with large trade deficits and dependence on oil exports not only resulting in economic stagnation but also hindering development. Here, corruption is a fair game.
Bribery is also a fair game. The trouble is that either is a seed; once it is sown, it will surely germinate,
then bear fruit. After that comes the harvest season.

The reality is unambiguous: many families survive on less than N5,000 per week, while the minimum wage barely covers the cost of a bag of rice. Soaring gasoline prices, inadequate education, healthcare and nutrition have all contributed to a vicious cycle of poverty and underdevelopment. To make matters worse, the inflation rate has skyrocketed to an all-time high, exacerbating the country’s economic challenges; and it is as if the gods are angry!

With these pressing issues staring us in the face, what concrete solutions is Afenifere proposing, and how is it engaging with organizations like the Development Agenda for Western Nigeria (DAWN) to address these challenges? Furthermore, as Afenifere’s stance seems to swing and swerve depending on the whims of its leaders, is the organization presenting solid position papers and working collaboratively with others to drive meaningful
change? The fall of giants like Ayo Adebanjo serves as a poignant reminder that the baton of leadership must be
passed to a new generation of Nigerians who are equally committed to the ideals of democracy, social justice, and federalism. In saner societies, Afenifere is supposed to have evolved into a research institute powerhouse for Southwest Nigeria, proffering ironclad solutions to state and local governments on education, internal security, food security and health challenges. But is in doing that?

How many people relate to Afenifere these days, apart from a tiny segment of the elite? Again, if one may ask, what’s the continued relevance of Afenifere? Its influence has waned, and its connection to the average person, particularly outside the elite circle, is tenuous at best. If you talk to somebody in Ijebu-Jesa, my Native Nazareth, what is his concern with Afenifere? Does he know what it stands for? With the last of the titans finding their way to their Creator, will Afenifere still be relevant in decades to come?

Adebanjo was once here! Now, he belongs in history! He has done his bit and he has left the stage. He fought tirelessly for his principles, unyielding in the face of adversity, and uncompromising in his pursuit of a more just and equitable society. His legacy, now forever entwined with the fabric of Afenifere, stands as an inspiration, illuminating the enduring importance of equity, good governance and social justice – timeless ideals that transcend the boundaries of mortality.

Adebanjo’s passing represents what we have lost and what might have been. The lesson from the passing of people like him should be taught in schools and documentary dramas made about their lives in order to instruct, guide and guard. Perhaps, it’d still be possible to rekindle that era!

May the beautiful souls of Chief Ayo Adebanjo and Chief Edwin Clark find rest in the bosom of their
Creator!

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

*KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria ( ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk )

By Toby Prince

In the heart of Nigeria’s digital economy, a story of patriotism and resilience unfolds. The telecommunications sector, a driving force behind the country’s growth, has been facing unprecedented challenges. Despite its significant contributions to Nigeria’s social and economic development, the sector has been struggling to keep up with the rising costs of operations.

For nearly a decade, telecom tariffs in Nigeria remained unchanged, while the demand for data and voice services skyrocketed. The cost of operations, however, surged due to rising energy costs, inflation, currency devaluation, and increased costs of importing telecom equipment. These mounting expenses threatened the very foundation of the sector, making it difficult for operators to maintain infrastructure and deliver high-quality services.

In the face of these challenges, telecom operators requested tariff adjustments to reflect the current cost of delivering services. The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) carefully considered these proposals, balancing the needs of operators with the interests of consumers. Instead of approving the suggested 100% rate increase, the NCC authorized a maximum adjustment of up to 50% within the current tariff bands.

The NCC plays a vital role in regulating the telecommunications industry in Nigeria, and its actions are guided by the Nigerian Communications Act of 2003. This act empowers the body to regulate and approve tariff rates and charges by telecom operators, ensuring a balance between consumer protection and industry sustainability.

The NCC’s decision to approve tariff adjustments was not taken lightly. It was based on extensive consultations with stakeholders from both the public and private sectors. The goal was to strike a balance between the financial realities of telecom operators and the economic pressures faced by Nigerian households and businesses. The approved tariff adjustments were capped at 50%, significantly lower than the 100% increase requested by operators. This decision showcases the NCC’s commitment to creating a telecommunications environment that works for everyone.
To further protect consumers, the NCC mandated telecom operators to implement the approved adjustments transparently and fairly.

Meanwhile, operators were also required to educate and inform the public about the new rates, ensuring customers are fully aware of any changes to their billing structures. Additionally, the NCC’s updated Quality of Service Regulations empower it to sanction operators who fail to meet their service obligations.

Nigerians need to understand that the recent tariff adjustments in the telecommunications sector are a necessary step towards ensuring the long-term sustainability of the industry. These adjustments will enable operators to invest in infrastructure upgrades and innovation, ultimately providing opportunities for local businesses to thrive.

A robust telecommunications sector is crucial for achieving Nigeria’s digital economy goals, including e-commerce growth, broadband penetration, and digital inclusion. The tariff adjustments will strengthen operators’ contributions to these objectives by providing connectivity to underserved and rural areas, driving innovation, creating jobs, and boosting economic productivity.

Since 2013, telecom operators have grappled with escalating costs without corresponding adjustments to the tariff rates they offered. Without tariff adjustments, operators risk being unable to sustain their operations, leading to service degradation and potential job losses within the industry. This would increase the rate of unemployment in the country, contributing to the hardship the government has been fighting hard to eradicate.

The telecommunications sector is capital-intensive, requiring continuous investment in infrastructure to meet growing demand and improve service quality. The approved tariff adjustments will provide operators with the financial resources needed to invest in network expansion, upgrade existing infrastructure, and enhance customer service. This will ultimately benefit consumers by delivering better connectivity, reduced downtime, and wider network coverage.

It’s worth noting that the Nigerian Communications Commission’s (NCC) approval of tariff adjustments aligns with international best practices, ensuring Nigeria stays competitive in the global telecommunications landscape. By maintaining tariffs within the bands outlined in the 2013 NCC Cost Study, the Commission has ensured that the adjustments are both fair and evidence-based.

Furthermore, the NCC’s modest tariff adjustment was influenced by the financial strains that many businesses and households are experiencing. In the context of the broader economy, the long-term benefits of the slight increase in consumer bills far outweigh the immediate costs. Benefits such as expanded coverage, improved network quality, and enhanced customer service will provide greater value to consumers, further ensuring they receive a greater telecommunications experience.

In other to mitigate the impact on vulnerable consumers, the NCC has mandated that operators simplify their tariff structures, and offer affordable plans that will be suitable to different income levels. Additionally, the Commission will continue to monitor the implementation of the adjustments to ensure compliance with its guidelines and protect consumers from exploitation. This action validates the Commission’s goal of ensuring that Nigeria remains at the forefront of digital innovation and connectivity in Africa.

As a regulator, it is obvious that the NCC is not only protecting consumers, but also supporting operators, indigenous vendors, and suppliers who form the pillar of the telecom industry. It is worthy of note to state that the adjustments have no relation to the ongoing tax reform conversation. This holistic approach ensures that the benefits of a thriving telecommunications sector are felt across all segments of society.

The tariff adjustments approved by the NCC are a necessary step toward addressing the financial and operational challenges faced by telecom operators. Far from being complicit in any alleged exploitation, the NCC has demonstrated commendable patriotism and a deep commitment to balancing consumer protection with industry sustainability. The NCC’s actions in approving the tariff adjustments reflect patriotism and national progress at its finest.

By enabling operators to invest in infrastructure, improve service quality, and support indigenous businesses, the NCC is laying the foundation for a more robust and inclusive telecommunications sector that can measure up with its international counterparts all across the globe. The adjustments are not merely a response to current market conditions but a forward-looking strategy that will ensure Nigeria’s telecommunications industry remains a vital driver of economic growth and digital transformation.

As Nigerians, it is very important to view these adjustments as a patriotic move by the NCC to secure the future of connectivity and development in the country. The Commission’s action embodies transparency and accountability, and it serves as a reminder that effective regulation is not about appeasing one stakeholder group over another, but about creating an environment that works for everyone. Through its efforts, the NCC is proving that a stronger, more sustainable telecommunications sector is not just a possibility but a reality within reach.