By Abiodun KOMOLAFE

We are at midterm, which means that the next electoral cycle has already started. Unfortunately, governance will begin to slow down as politicking and jockeying for advantage become more pronounced, distracting from the real work of administration and the quest to achieve sustainable development.

The ruling party currently holds a significant advantage, facing an ill-defined and unfocused array of interest groups lacking cohesion. Unlike parliamentary systems, presidential systems don’t truly have an opposition; concept. Instead, they offer a focused alternative platform, presenting a distinct and more positive stance than the governing party’s. It sums it all that, within the reality of a very difficult economic crisis, there is no realistic, properly-costed alternative on offer. This is a clear indication of intellectual indolence and the absence of political parties showing up our present reality that what we have are Special Purpose
Vehicles (SPVs).

To understand the 2027 outlook, we need to examine past election data, shifting alliances and current trends. One key point from the past data is that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), now President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, got 63% of his total votes from the 1966 Northern Region. This raises important questions: What does this mean if there's growing disaffection with the current administration in the North and how will this impact the national majority that brought Tinubu to power?

Assuming, of course, that there's genuine disaffection in the North, rather than just posturing by those seeking advantage, it’s essential to recognize that there’s no ‘monolithic North’. So, the strength of the Tinubu coalition will vary significantly from state to state. In Kaduna, for instance, the APC is currently gaining ground due to defections, despite Abubakar Atiku’s comfortable win in the last presidential election.

Given these dynamics, projections suggest Tinubu will win Kaduna by a comfortable margin in 2027, particularly as Southern Kaduna appears to be shifting towards the APC for the first time. The dynamics will shift from state to state, requiring analysis from this perspective, particularly as it affects senatorial and local government elections. With an expanding base in the South, the odds strongly favour Tinubu’s reelection by a convincing margin. Furthermore, the opposition’s disorganization and focus on personalities rather than programs undermine
their effectiveness.

Had Nigeria been blessed with a robust opposition, it would likely have by now replicated the ‘Popular Front’ model, which was successfully done in Europe and Latin America in the past. This approach, which originated in the 1920s, reached its peak with Salvador Allende Gossens’ victory in Chile in 1971, and the subsequent formation of a Government of Popular Unity. A Popular Front is essentially an alliance of diverse groups, activists, political parties, and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs). In Latin America, it incorporated the LT, which was rooted in the Catholic Church. The Popular Front's key strength lay in its clearly-defined alternative economic program, which aimed to achieve macro-economic stability as a means to attain social justice.

Influential figures like Pope Francis and St. Karol Józef Wojtyła emerged from the Liberation Theology Movement (LT). Other prominent figures associated with this movement include St. Óscar Romero, Jamie Cardinal Sin, Carlos Filipe Ximenes Belo and Jean-Bertrand Aristide. This movement was particularly powerful in Latin American countries like Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. It was similar to Nigeria’s National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), with
its own political, socioeconomic and related programmes.

In today’s Nigeria, many of those competing for power have no intention of forming a popular front that would lead to a government of popular unity. Otherwise, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) wouldn’t have been so entangled in the Godswill Akapbio/Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan drama at a time when Sunday Jackson, who had killed his attacker, was facing a Supreme Court ruling upholding his conviction. If you ask CAN about Leah Sharibu’s whereabouts, they might respond flippantly, saying she’s sipping ‘fura de nono’ in its coldest state, somewhere in the Sambisa Forest. Similarly, inquire about what has come out of the senseless murder of Deborah Samuel,
and the usual refrain, ‘God gives, God takes; glory be to God’, would rent the air! It is that bad; and it is
sad!

For the religious leaders, religion is more of a means to an end even as the followers continue to wallow in self-deceit. The sanctity of traditional thrones in Nigeria has also been carelessly and dangerously politicized that any Ganduje could just wake up from the ‘other room’ and disrupt an age-old system without considering the consequences of his actions. So, how do we develop a society in the midst of all kinds of social-yet-avoidable threats?

Without an alternative perspective and the formation of a unified popular front, 2027 is looking like it’s going to be an anticlimax. Why? There will be gales of decamping to the ruling party, eliminating any impetus for policy review. It therefore means that Nigeria is actually between a rock and a hard place, with an opposition driven by self-interest rather than a genuine desire to provide alternative solutions and position itself as a viable government-in-waiting. Even Organized Labour today resembles what Karl Marx described as “an aristocracy of labour”, rather than an organization fighting for sustainable development and the continuous elevation of living standards. The country will have to grin and bear it, for such is the nature of a political economy that’s based on rent seeking, rather than building a sustainable production base.

Tinubu’s reelection in 2027 appears certain, and one doesn’t need to be a soothsayer or visit Okija Shrine to foresee this outcome. As Detective Sherlock Holmes would say, “Elementary logic, Watson!”

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

*KOMOLAFE wrote from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria ( ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk )

By Ehichioya Ezomon

Former British statesman, Labour Party politician and twice Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (1964 to 1970 and 1974 to 1976) James Harold Wilson (1916-1995), stated that: “A week is a long time in politics,” which, in today’s world of social media, is being updated to, “A day in politics is a lifetime.”

Thus, ahead of the February 2027 General Election in Nigeria, “a day in politics is like a lifetime” in which anything – the anticipated and the unexpected – could happen in the political arena, with one politician already predicting the poll outcome, and embarking on a warpath to hinder those on his radar even up to 2031.

But how many political combats can former Kaduna State Governor and ex-Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai win till Election Day in 2027 and beyond? How many of the politicians posturing for elective offices will grace his “enemy list”? Will he ultimately compromise and reconcile with his “enemies”?
Controversial and outspoken el-Rufai has a grievance, which’s that President Bola Tinubu, who promised him a ministerial portfolio didn’t deliver, but was actually the one who didn’t want him in his government.

To el-Rufai, it’s Tinubu – and not the Senate over alleged security concerns – who gave the order for his ministerial rejection in 2023. He recalled that proposing to name him for the power ministry, the president had told him, “Let’s join hands to defeat the electricity mafia,” adding that he accepted to serve because of that challenge.

In his extensive and no-holds-barred interview on Arise TV on February 24, 2025, el-Rufai said: “The president begged me publicly to come and serve in his government.

“After two months of negotiations, we finally agreed that he would nominate me as minister. I think along the line, the president changed his mind. Please, don’t believe the story that the NASS (National Assembly) rejected me; it has nothing to do with this. The president didn’t want me in his cabinet.”

Rhetorically, el-Rufai queried: “What was the security issue? I had been the Governor for eight years in one of the most difficult States in the country. Where is the (security) report? What about other ministers who are far less qualified and have huge controversies around them that scaled through because the president made a call?”

If the President, as el-Rufai claimed, “made a call” to the Senate on behalf of some nominees, why didn’t Tinubu do likewise for el-Rufai, who most Nigerians were sure would be the first to be cleared by the Senate, owing to how Tinubu publicly cajoled him to be part of his cabinet.

Nigerians were elated over speculations that el-Rufai would be named the Minister of Power due to his antecedents as Minister of the FCT, which he sanitised in line with the territory’s Master Plan.

And they can’t forget that iconic video of Tinubu and el-Rufai walking almost hand-in-hand when then-President-elect visited Kaduna State, and pleaded with el-Rufai to be part of his government, even as el-Rufai stated he wanted to take leave from public service.

But alas, el-Rufai’s screening by the Senate ended in controversy, with claims that the Department of State Services (DSS) had issues with his clearance, and that the Kaduna Senators didn’t suppot his nomination – a main criterion for a nominee’s approval by the Senate.

Barring any undercurrents, Tinubu owes el-Rufai a reciprocal gesture for a yeoman’s job of fighting for the Presidency to rotate to Southern Nigeria in 2023. El-Rufai thrust his chest out in support of the zoning, at least under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which benefited Tinubu!

If, indeed, Tinubu hadn’t a hand in el-Rufai’s rejection by the Senate, why didn’t he carve out another appointment for him in government, which doesn’t require Senate clearance? That he didn’t do so is food for thought, as el-Rufai’s only scratched the surface, and Tinubu remains taciturn about what went wrong along the way!

El-Rufai also spoke about how he and the Kaduna chapter of the APC endorsed Tinubu among the aspirants for President in 2023, saying: “I don’t know if I will support Tinubu in 2027. I will evaluate the situation at the time and I will consult widely. When I supported President Tinubu before the primaries, it was a decision that the leaders of APC took in Kaduna. Who do we support?

“We succeeded in ensuring that power goes to the South, and we know that all the Northern candidates (then-Kogi State Governor) Yahaya Bello, and (then-Senate President) Ahmad Lawan will go nowhere.

“Among the southerners, who do we support? They know those that are my friends. Tinubu was not my friend. I was never close to him. (In spite their political association of over a decade, from 2012 to 2023 – pre-formation of the APC, and through the campaigns and conduct of the 2015, 2019 and 2023 General Elections).

“But the consensus of the APC in Kaduna was that we should support Bola Tinubu because he is the one that is more likely to win. Politicians make these calculations. In 2027, I am going to consult the same people. We are going to take the same decision, which candidate to support and in which party!”

El-Rufai admitted he might not possess the same clout in 2027 as in 2023, to determine who and from which region the APC candidate will emerge. “Now, I am a private citizen. I am not sure I would be in the APC 2027, so I cannot answer that question (about his support for a Southern candidate). Now in 2027, I will not be a governor, so I will not have the sort of clout that I had in 2023,” he said.

Going haywire, el-Rufai boasts of rallying like-minded Nigerians, to upstage Tinubu in 2027. He’s created an “enemy list” that so far contains Tinubu; the National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu; and Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani, who el-Rufai “anointed” to succeed him in 2023.

El-Rufai’s tackling Tinubu from the angle of performance of his administration barely two years in the saddle. And he’s given the President and his team the thumbs down, as one of the reasons he may not endorse him for re-election in 2027.

In his Arise TV interview, el-Rufai asked if Tinubu has performed averagely to contemplate running for a second term, saying, “As a private citizen, I can afford to be reckless and say, ‘You know what? We gave the southerners their chance. They gave us Tinubu; has he done well? If he hasn’t done well by 2027, let’s vote him out’” (and vote in a northerner).

El-Rufai talked about a “Project to destroy el-Rufai,” allegedly motivated by Mallam Ribadu’s purported ambition to succeed Tinubu in 2031, even as he accused Governor Sani of working with Ribadu, and levelling corruption allegations against him, to destroy his image.

“This project… is Nuhu Ribadu’s conception. He is the architect and builder of that project. He is the one working with Uba Sani to implement it. So far, it has been frustrating for them,” el-Rufai said.

Denying el-Rufai’s claim, Ribadu, in a post on X platform on February 24, stated: “If my silence wouldn’t be misconstrued as consent, I would have ignored him. I am too preoccupied with my current assignment to engage in a media fight with Nasir el-Rufai or anyone else.

“Despite the incessant baiting and attacks, I have never spoken ill of Nasir on record anywhere. This is out of respect for our past association and our respective families. I will not start today. I, however, urge the public to disregard El-Rufai’s statements against me.”

On the claim by el-Rufai that he’s planning a 2031 presidential bid, Ribadu stated: “For the avoidance of doubt, I want to put it on record that I have never discussed running for president in 2031 with anybody.

“All my focus and energy are geared completely towards the advancement of Nigeria and the success of President Tinubu’s administration. I therefore ask Nasir el-Rufai to allow me to face my onerous national assignment, just as I do not bother myself with his own affairs.”

El-Rufai, like some topshots, boycotted the APC first caucus meeting under Tinubu’s headship on February 25, stating: “Unfortunately, I won’t attend the APC national caucus meeting, because I will be on my way to Cairo where I spend most of my time. I didn’t get adequate notice.

“The constitution of our party requests 21 days or I think 14 days’ notice for this kind of national organ meeting. I don’t think that notice was given. If it was given, I don’t think I’d received such an invitation. I’ve my plans, and I am leaving tomorrow (February 25). Many of my friends will attend and they will give me updates. I don’t think I will miss anything. Ramadan is starting. I’ve made my own plans, too.”

Anyway, el-Rufai said he’s been vocal about his grievances with the APC and its leadership, especially his earlier declaration that, “he’d not left the APC, but it’s the APC that’d left him.”

“When the party meets, I think I’ve shouted loud and clear. So, we’ll wait and see what the party will do about it. I don’t have to be there. I’m not the only member of the party that’s unhappy” (about APC’s alleged deviation from its core progressive principles and values).

It wasn’t all gloom and doom about President Tinubu and his economic policies, and reported lopsided appointments that favour the Yoruba. “I support some of his (Tinubu’s) policies; most of the economic policies are the right orthodox policies, but the sequencing is wrong and the quality of the people implementing the reforms leaves much to be desired” el-Rufai said.

“President Tinubu is appointing his own boys, not because they’re Yoruba, and most of his appointments do not reasonably cover the Southwest. People should stop confusing the two; the appointments are not balanced, but it’s not a Yoruba thing. Please, don’t punish the Yoruba.”

Despite hobnobbing with and chaperoning former Vice President and ex-presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, across the power bases in the country, el-Rufai ruled out joining the PDP, but may find another platform “to pursue the progressive values he believes in if he can’t find them in the APC.”

“(But) one thing I can say for sure is that PDP is not a party I will go to, ever. I thought about it and decided long ago, and nothing has changed; in fact, if anything, the PDP has gotten worse,” he said.

With friends like Mallam el-Rufai, President Tinubu, Mallam Ribadu and Governor Sani don’t need enemies! Who’ll be next to appear on el-Rufai’s “enemy list” as he proceeds apace towards his 2027 goal of removing Tinubu and the APC from power? The political arena is pregnant with anxiety and anticipation!

(END)

Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria. Can be reached on X, Threads, Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp @EhichioyaEzomon. Tel: 08033078357

By Ola Awoniyi

Thursday, 6th March 2025, started like any other day in the Nigerian Senate. But before the day ran out, some events that would not be easily forgotten had unfolded. First: a woman Senator was sanctioned for misconduct after flouting the rules of the Senate. Second: Women Legislative Aides in the Office of the Senate President hosted a huge gathering of women for a global event.

Ironically, while the women were waiting in a big conference room in the Senate wing of the Assembly for the gender-related event to kick off, a fellow woman was being escorted out of the hallowed Chamber by the Sergeant-At-Arms, having been suspended from the Senate for six months. What a coincidence!

The assembly of women was led by the Minister of Women Affairs, Mrs Imaan Suleiman-Ibrahim, and included some former women Senators, representatives of women groups and women activists. The gathering was to mark International Women’s Day, commemorated worldwide yearly on the 8th of March.

The United Nation’s purpose for the Women’s Day celebrations is to boost global awareness on women’s rights, gender inclusivity in the economy and polity, gender equality and campaign against abuse and violence against women. The President of the Senate, Godswill Obot Akpabio, attended the event in company with some other Senators, including the Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin, and Senate Leader, Opeyemi Bamidele. They left the Chamber after the day’s proceedings to participate in the event. The platform offered the Senate President an opportunity to showcase his record of commitment to women’s rights despite the negative commentaries portraying him differently.

Akpabio recalled an event decades ago, when, as a Student Union Leader, he walked into the office of a Professor to fight for a female student who had complained of victimisation by the lecturer. The confrontation with the lecturer saved the student from being willfully failed.

Akpabio also proudly exhibited his record as the Governor of Akwa Ibom State when he had a woman as his Deputy Governor and appointed three women as Chief Judges and two as Head of Service. He also appointed many women to his cabinet and as chairpersons of many local governments. During his tenure, the Deputy Speaker and Chief Whip of the State House of Assembly were women. And when Akpabio had the privilege to nominate for a ministerial appointment, his nominee was a woman. The record earned him the award of The Most Gender-Friendly Governor in Nigeria.

Since his emergence as Senate President, Akpabio has continued to demonstrate the same commitment to gender inclusivity. He directed the management of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS) to create a Gender Inclusivity Unit. He also caused the Institute to convoke a Conference of Women in Governance in August 2023.

Reflecting on all of the above and many more that Thursday, Akpabio emphatically remarked: “So, l have been a great advocate for the rights of women and I will remain so till I die.”

However, the Senate President challenged the gathering to ponder why, despite the increasing advocacy, the level of women’s inclusion keeps falling in Nigeria. He cited the case of the National Assembly which had nine women Senators in the Ninth Senate but only four in the Tenth Senate.

For Akpabio, one way to change the narrative is for women to look inward and avoid certain things. They should not always weaponise their gender. “We can increase the number of women in Parliament by our own attitude, by preventing the idea of weaponising gender.”

Then the case of Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, the Kogi Senator suspended a couple of hours earlier, as expected, came up at the event. It is an episode the Senate President was reluctant to comment on in the public or outside the Chamber. But Akpabio was compelled to make some remarks on it by the comments made earlier by some speakers.

For instance, a woman activist, Ene Obi, who spoke ahead of the Senate President, said if she had not brought the issue up that day, “then I’m not worthy of living.” She said for 10 days, she and her colleagues hardly slept because of Natasha’s case. She narrated how they, at different times, engaged the Senate President and Senator Natasha in an attempt to find a solution to the matter. “We told the Senate President that we have only four women in the Senate and we need them to be protected. We need them to have an environment that they can serve. And so we are really worried.” Obi concluded that the decision of the Senate earlier that day to suspend Senator Natasha “shows that we have failed,” in our mediation role. She nonetheless appealed again to the Senate President for a resolution of the matter and that they wanted more women representation in parliament.

Responding, Akpabio, who Natasha accused of sexual harassment, made it clear that he had no idea anything happened between them on 8th December 2023, a day before his birthday celebration in Uyo. “So from 8th December 2023, I never heard. My wife never heard. No Nigerian ever heard. Even the husband never heard of this issue of sexual harassment until her committee was changed, and then her seat was changed.

“Have you ever wondered about the trauma caused by that same woman on the other people she has accused in the past? None has been proven so far. You even wonder about the trauma caused to the 10th Senate and the image of the Senate with all these useless allegations.”

To highlight the character of the Senator in question, Akpabio recalled an incident involving her and the Minister of Women Affairs, Mrs Imaan Suleiman-Ibrahim, at the National Assembly. The Minister had spoken ahead of Akpabio but only about a favourable disposition of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the National Assembly to women, which was demonstrated in the increase of the budget of the Ministry of Women Affairs by 1000 percent.

But Akpabio said the Minister failed to mention the experience that made her cry when she appeared before the Senate to defend the 2025 budget of her Ministry. According to Akpabio, a female senator walked her out, remarking that the minister had not come prepared. Other Senators pleaded to allow her to defend the budget because she had another function with Mr President in Lagos. However, the female Senator insisted that the way she started was disrespectful to the Senate. All pleas and entreaties fell on the Senator’s deaf ears and the minister left the Senate in tears that day. “I had to call her (Minister) to tell her, that does not represent us. And the woman that walked her out of that committee was Distinguished Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan. Here we are talking of character,” Akpabio told his women audience.

“Your attitude determines your altitude. Our women must rise above pettiness. We must go back to where we see an upward movement of women in all spheres of life. That is the only way I will have hope and fulfilment that I have left a solid legacy behind in politics.

“We must condemn all issues of sexual harassment that are not fake. We must tell women not to use tears to look for sentiments when they are making false accusations. We must also let women know that governance is not about vanity. If a common seat can cause a kind of hullabaloo and then you asked why don’t you want to move from the seat and somebody sits on Television and said that is the only place camera catches me well. Are we doing a beauty contest in the Senate? It is a serious place. It is not a place you look for the camera to come and catch you. But we have left room for reconciliation. The debt I owe Nigerian women, through my late mother, is so deep in me that I will, throughout my life, continue to work for the upliftment of the women in this country.”

On low women representation in governance, Akpabio said: “Let us talk to ourselves. Listen to the minister. The minister just suffered from a fellow woman. Put up a woman in any senatorial district today for Senate, women will vote for the men. You will never vote for yourselves. So let us start by questioning you. How come you don’t elect your own? When the minister was speaking, the minister said women constitute 51 percent of the voting population in Nigeria. So why, again, are you taking the backstage in terms of political representation? Women will never vote for themselves. Ask me, if a woman does not want to vote for a woman, am I the one that will force the woman to vote?”

However, Akpabio offers a solution to the complex problem. He cited the measures adopted in some countries he has visited, like Tanzania, South Africa and Malawi, where a certain percentage of seats are constitutionally reserved for women. In countries like the United Arab Emirates and Somalia, he said it is done by appointment of a number of women into the Parliament.

“We are discussing that in the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. If it means tinkering with the Electoral Act to enable women have a say in the Parliament, we will do so. Women are better managers but sometimes women can be harder than men. When they take decisions, they take decisions, but they are very prudent in all aspects of life,” Akpabio said.

***Ola Awoniyi writes from Abuja