The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicated that the rainfall onset date is to be earlier than the long-term average in most parts of the country in 2023.
The Minister of Aviation, Senator Hadi Sirika disclosed this at the public presentation of the 2023 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) organized by NiMet in Abuja.
Senator Sirika noted that the onset dates will range from 2nd March to 7th July 2023. While states like Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, and Yobe in the North and
Cross River, Ebonyi, Imo, and Rivers in the South are likely to experience a delayed onset.
The Onset is expected to become established in early March from the coastal states of Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom.
Speaking on day and night temperature for May, he said the forecast has
been included to capture variability in recent climate and to cover the
hot season in Nigeria which is usually observed between February and
May.
He added that the 2023 SCP document has also been translated into three
major languages: Hausa, Yoruba and Igbo, to provide increased access and encourage wider uptake in the Country.
“The rainfall onset date is predicted to be earlier than the long-term average in most parts of the country. However, parts
of Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, and Yobe in the north and Cross River, Ebonyi, Imo, and Rivers in the south are likely to
experience a delayed onset
“The Onset is expected to become established in early March from the coastal states of Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom; in April for the Inland States of the South;
in May around the Central States and around July in the northern States. The onset dates will range from 2nd March to 7th July 2023.” Sirika said.
An early End of Season (EoS) is also predicted over parts of the South, especially in Osun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and eastern parts of Ogun and Lagos and parts of Yobe, Adamawa, Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi.
However, an extended rainfall season is predicted over parts of Gombe, Kaduna, Kwara, Enugu, Anambra, western Ogun, and Lagos. The end of season period is expected to range from the 26th of
September till 25th of December.
“The length of growing season in most places in the country is likely to be near the long-term average, except for some parts of the northern states such as Katsina, Jigawa, and Kano where
shorter than the long-term average length of the growing season is anticipated.
“The season is expected to range from 84 to 283 days. Abuja and surrounding States are expected to witness between 170 and 230 days. The annual total rainfall is predicted to be Normal to above
normal in most parts of the country.
“However, in parts of Yobe,
Jigawa, Kano, Bauchi, Jigawa, Kaduna and FCT that are likely to observe below normal to near normal annual rainfall amounts. The annual rainfall amount is expected to range from 420 mm in
the far northernmost parts to 3253 mm in the coastal areas.” The Minister noted
On dry spell occurrences which have characterised seasons in Nigeria in recent
years. NiMet charged the general public to prepare for its occurrence between
June and early July as dry spell lasting between 15 to 21 days is in
the forecast, especially from the central parts of the country to the North.
“When compared to the last years, the little dry season (August Break) for 2023 is expected to be less intense. It is expected to last between 14 and 20 days starting from late July especially over the Southwest of the country.
“Other forecasts such as the temperature for the first 5 months of the year, Malaria and meningitis forecast along with the
socio-economic implications of these forecasts are contained in explicit details in the documents.
“To our dear Policy Makers across all tiers of Government, the 2023 SCP has been summarised in a booklet that is handy and
highly informative. This summary is also available today for your kind attention and pick up.
“As weather is dynamic so is the climate (i.e., Climate variability). Hence, I assure you that the Nigerian Meteorological Agency will ensure everything is done to bring updates to you should there be
changes in any of the expected climatic parameter. So, feel free to digest all the salient information contained in the
document.
“It is important at this juncture to appreciate everyone whose feedback, efforts, support, and leadership over the years have made the SCP and its advisories an important reference document and product within and outside Nigeria.
‘Your regular feedback will continue to help NiMet improve the accuracy of the forecast and performance of the model for optimum
productivity, guided decisions, and reliable results.
“Now that Early Warning has been provided, I encourage us All to
embrace Early Action for maximum benefits and sustainable national
socio-economic development. By so doing, collectively we would have
stayed through to the theme of this event: “Strengthening Climate Risk Early Warning Services for Improved Food Security
and Disaster Risk Reduction in Nigeria.” Senator Sirika admonished.
Also, the Director General, NiMet, Prof. Mansur Bako Matazu commended
President Muhammadu Buhari for his unwavering support for the agency, especially for signing NiMet new Act of 2022.
“With the NiMet new Act of 2022, we are optimistic of effective collaborations
going forward. Thanks to Mr President and the Lawmakers for making this a reality”, Professor Matazu added.
